Match Info

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday


	São Bernardo		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.80	3.10	2.37
	2.85	3.05	2.4	Watch
	2.89	3.15	2.62
	2.84	3.06	2.55	Watch
	2.8	3	2.55
	2.76	2.95	2.6
	2.85	3.1	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.5)	3.06 ↓ (3.15)	2.49 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
32.7%

Draw
30.2%

Vila Nova
37.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.2%

29.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

30.6%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Bernardo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vila Nova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

São Bernardo - Vila Nova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 12th and 1st in the Promotion - Serie A).

In recent outings, São Bernardo has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Vila Nova shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, São Bernardo has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vila Nova FC	34	18	8	8	48:33	15	62
12	Sao Bernardo	34	12	10	12	46:37	9	46

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Vila Nova FC: 30.63%

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.22%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
18.10.26	São Bernardo - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
11.10.26	Juventude - São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
06.10.26	Sport Recife - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
02.10.26	São Bernardo - CRB Maceio	3:1 ✺
25.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LTLWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
18.10.26	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
11.10.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Vila Nova	0:2 ✺
07.10.26	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
25.09.26	Vila Nova - Londrina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1

São Bernardo - Vila Nova: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide