Match Info

BRAZIL: RECOPA GAUCHO - FINAL

Date: 28 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio 19 de Outubro (Ijuí)


	São Luiz		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.6	1.7
	4	3.5	1.75
	4.57	3.5	1.69
	4.4	3.65	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↓ (5.99)	3.56 ↓ (3.88)	1.7 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Luiz
21.5%

Draw
25.4%

Grêmio
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.1%

23.2%

61.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

22.7%

63.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Luiz's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Luiz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raul (G) 17. Felipe Baiano 9. Gabriel Morbeck 2. Joao Vitor 20. Leandro Cordova 5. Lucas Hulk 23. Luquinha 6. Marcio Duarte 18. Ramires 14. Ricardo Thalheimer 15. Wesley Junio	31. Caique (G) 77. Andre Henrique 15. Bruno Uvini 13. Everton Galdino 2. Fabio (C) 53. Gustavo Martins 26. Mayk 36. Nata 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 35. Ronald
Substitutes
22. Borasi B. 3. Bruno Jesus 10. Diogo Sodre 13. Douglas Dias 8. Gabriel Davis 21. Gabriel Pereira 7. Guilherme Dal Pian 12. Luiz Felipe (G) 4. Mateus Santana 16. Ricardo Liell 11. Vini Peixoto 19. Yan Philippe	22. Besozzi L. 50. Cheron 33. Igor Schlemper 40. Jardiel 49. Joao Araujo 38. Lian 47. Rubens Ricoldi 43. Souza Lima Santos H. 52. Thawan Miranda da Silva A. 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 44. Viery 51. Wesley Costa
Coaches
Alessandro Telles	Renato Gaucho

Preview

Neutral location - Estádio 19 de Outubro.

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Luiz won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches São Luiz won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-18.

Including matches at home between the teams São Luiz won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Luiz
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.02.24	Guarany de Bagé - São Luiz	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.02.24	São Luiz - Ituano	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
17.02.24	São Luiz - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
13.02.24	São Luiz - Juventude	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Grêmio - São Luiz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWTTT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.02.24	Internacional RS - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
17.02.24	Grêmio - Santa Cruz-RS	6:2 ✺
14.02.24	Ypiranga - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
10.02.24	Grêmio - São Luiz	1:1 ✺
06.02.24	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
10.02.24	Grêmio - São Luiz	1:1
18.02.23	São Luiz - Grêmio	0:0
19.02.22	Grêmio - São Luiz	4:0
31.03.21	São Luiz - Grêmio	2:2
15.03.20	Grêmio - São Luiz	3:2
07.04.19	Grêmio - São Luiz	3:0
31.03.19	São Luiz - Grêmio	0:0

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