Match Info

Premier League - Round 36

Date: 23 May 2025, Friday

Location: ASCO Arena (Baku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Səbail		Sumgayit

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.37
	3.05	3.2	2.18	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.58
	3.06	3.36	2.16	Watch
	2.7	3	2.5
	3.08	3.24	2.15
	3.05	3.2	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.55)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	2.3 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Səbail
31.8%

Draw
28.6%

Sumgayit
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.4%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

27.6%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Səbail - Sumgayit Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quliyev H. (G) 67. Abasov R. 19. Abdullayev S. 11. Abdullazada R. (C) 14. Allouch S. 44. Bilali A. 97. Mammadov O. 96. Muradov I. 4. Nikolic M. 16. Rustamov E. 88. Shiraliyev H.	36. Farzullayev K. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. 21. Ahmadzada N. 5. Alan Dias 77. Jaloliddinov J. 17. Khachayev M. (C) 12. Kharaishvili G. 24. Muradli S. 99. Nimely S. 75. Orujov N. 2. Tashkyn S.
Substitutes
22. Abbasov M. 18. Ahmadov S. 21. Bouali A. 20. Celik M. 8. Larrucea G. 3. Lytvyn D. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 12. Mustabazada A. (G) 83. Quliyev N. 89. Qurbanov O. 5. Sofir G.	9. Abdikholikov B. 66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 14. Badalov E. 1. Cannatov M. (G) 19. Kehat R. 7. Muradov R. 97. Pashayev V. 30. Quliyev K. 20. Suleymanly A. 23. Vasquez R. 11. Yansane M.
Coaches
Nurmammadov A.	Abdullayev S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Jaloliddinov J. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Allouch S. ⚽,
28', Muradov I. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Tashkyn S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Muradov I. ↓, Quliyev N. ↑,
48', Orujov N. 🟨,
60', 1 - 2, Kharaishvili G. (Pen),
60', Kharaishvili G. 🟨,
61', Tashkyn S. ↓, Badalov E. ↑,
64', Abdullayev S. ↓, Bouali A. ↑,
64', Shiraliyev H. ↓, Qurbanov O. ↑,
67', Nimely S. ↓, Abdikholikov B. ↑,
67', Ahmadzada N. ↓, Vasquez R. ↑,
67', Jaloliddinov J. ↓, Kehat R. ↑,
73', Mammadov O. ↓, Larrucea G. ↑,
78', Abdullazada R. ↓, Ahmadov S. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, Vasquez R. ⚽, Abdikholikov B. (A),
83', Nikolic M. 🟨,
85', Orujov N. ↓, Pashayev V. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 4, Kehat R. ⚽,

Preview

Səbail is Relegated to I Liqa

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Səbail won 1.

Səbail is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sumgayit is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sumgayit will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Səbail won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:30. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Səbail won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.05.25	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	3:0 ✺
10.05.25	Səbail - Zira	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Shamakhi - Səbail	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Sabah - Səbail	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLTTL
- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.05.25	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Kapaz - Sumgayit	1:0 ✺
04.05.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Sumgayit	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
20.04.25	Zira - Sumgayit	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
18.01.25	Sumgayit - Səbail	0:2
26.10.24	Səbail - Sumgayit	0:1
17.08.24	Sumgayit - Səbail	2:1
12.05.24	Sumgayit - Səbail	2:1
08.03.24	Səbail - Sumgayit	0:1
23.12.23	Sumgayit - Səbail	1:0
05.08.23	Səbail - Sumgayit	1:4

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