Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 25

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	SD Aucas		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3	Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.45
	2.32	3	3	Watch
	2.43	3.2	3.28
	2.45	3.16	2.94	Watch
	2.4	2.95	3.2
	2.31	3.27	3.02	Watch
	2.31	3	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.26)	3.12 ↓ (3.18)	2.98 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
39.1%

Draw
29.8%

LDU Quito
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.2%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

30.1%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

SD Aucas - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 16. Gustavino L. 4. Burdisso M. 2. Morales S. 63. Garcia A. 6. Spina A. L. 10. Preciado E. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 29. Arroyo L.	22. Dominguez A. (C) 26. Zambrano I. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 3. Mina R. 25. Ortiz P. 99. Luna Tobar C. 10. Alvarado A. 31. Rodriguez J. 23. Quinonez Y. 7. Redes R. 16. Deyverson
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 11. Bolanos R. 12. Cabezas J. (G) 31. Carabali B. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 20. Espinosa D. S. 30. Oyola B. 5. Serpa T. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M. 17. Zambrano C. 37. Zova A.	4. Ade R. 67. Carabali J. 20. Cornejo F. 13. Corozo J. 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 11. Estrada M. 32. Gomez A. 5. Gonzalez Baquero S. 27. Mina R. 8. Pretell J. 44. Segovia L. 12. Villa A. (G)
Coaches
Araujo N.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Mina R. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Quinonez Y. ⚽, Rodriguez J. (A),
43', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Preciado E. ↓, Oyola B. ↑,
46', Arroyo L. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
48', Luna Tobar C. 🟨,
54', Redes R. ↓, Mina R. ↑,
58', Gustavino L. 🟨,
68', Mina R. 🟨,
69', Garcia A. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
71', Ortiz P. ↓, Carabali J. ↑,
71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Cornejo F. ↑,
71', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Pretell J. ↑,
75', Spina A. L. 🟨,
82', Alvarado A. ↓, Gonzalez Baquero S. ↑,
82', Mena A. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
86', Zambrano C. 🟨,
90+4', Deyverson 🟨,
90+4', Oyola B. 🟨,
90+10', Dominguez A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2.

Recent performances by Aucas have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

LDU Quito is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:25. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.7:1).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50
5	LDU Quito	31	14	7	10	33:25	8	49

Last Results with these Odds

SD Aucas - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.21%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Copa
12.08.26	La Unión - SD Aucas	1:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.08.26	SD Aucas - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
01.08.26	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
26.07.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:4 ✺
23.07.26	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLL
- LDU Quito
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.08.26	LDU Quito - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
03.08.26	LDU Quito - Delfín	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
30.07.26	LDU Quito - Leones del Norte	6:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0
09.08.25	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:0
18.04.25	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	3:1
17.08.24	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1
16.03.24	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:2
13.08.23	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:0
04.03.23	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:1

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