Match Info

Liga Pro - Championship Group - Round 3

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Parra P. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	16:30	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	16:30	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.10	2.25	Watch
	3.00	3.00	2.20
	3.30	3.20	2.20	Watch
	3.32	3.12	2.36
	3.51	3.09	2.19	Watch
	3.20	3.05	2.30
	3.28	3.03	2.30	Watch
	3.20	3.05	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.49)	3.08 ↑ (3.04)	2.25 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
28.6%

Draw
30.1%

LDU Quito
41.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

30.7%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

30.3%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SD Aucas's form might have worsened.

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting LDU Quito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SD Aucas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for LDU Quito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

SD Aucas - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 4. Burdisso M. 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 30. Oyola B. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 10. Preciado E. 9. Monti R.	1. Valle G. (G) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 4. Ade R. (C) 33. Quinonez L. 57. Weigandt M. 20. Cornejo F. 8. Pretell J. 23. Quinonez Y. 7. Rodriguez L. 13. Corozo J. 11. Estrada M.
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 29. Arroyo L. 11. Bolanos R. 31. Carabali B. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 1. Chaves I. (G) 63. Garcia A. 5. Serpa T. 17. Zambrano C.	10. Alvarado A. 67. Carabali J. 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 5. Gonzalez Baquero S. 3. Mina R. 27. Mina R. 18. Olvera W. 31. Rodriguez J. 44. Segovia L. 77. Velasco K. 26. Zambrano I.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Burdisso M. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Oyola B. ⚽,
43', Oyola B. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
45+4', 1 - 1, Estrada M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
46', Quinonez L. ↓, Carabali J. ↑,
46', Corozo J. ↓, Velasco K. ↑,
51', Spina A. L. 🟨,
61', Bolanos R. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
69', Guzman P. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
69', Monti R. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.

Aucas is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

LDU Quito has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Recently, LDU Quito has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

LDU Quito is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Aucas has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:26 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aucas against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 7:11 goals (averaging 0.7:1.1 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	LDU Quito	34	15	8	11	37:29	8	53
5	Aucas	34	14	9	11	36:37	-1	51

Last Results with these Odds

SD Aucas - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.47%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.10.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Manta - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTTT
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.10.26	LDU Quito - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	LDU Quito - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.26	LDU Quito - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.09.26	Palmeiras - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Copa
26.08.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.26	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0
09.08.25	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:0
18.04.25	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	3:1
17.08.24	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1
16.03.24	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:2

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