Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - First stage - Round 7

Date: 6 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)


	SD Aucas		Cumbayá

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.38	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.42	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.73	6.61
	1.44	4.73	6.61
	1.36	4.4	7
	1.43	4.62	6.49	Watch
	1.43	4.6	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	4.58 ↓ (4.82)	6.55 ↓ (6.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
65.5%

Draw
20.3%

Cumbayá
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

19.4%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

18.8%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Cumbayá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

SD Aucas - Cumbayá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Resendez E. (G) 18. Gonzalez J. 3. Ontaneda J. 16. Rolon C. 15. Mina J. 27. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 7. Vega E. (C) 25. Jaramillo R. 22. Cano L. 17. Batalla H. 9. Medina J.	23. San Juan F. (G) 16. Gustavino L. 12. Pluas W. 3. Hurtado K. 14. Suarez D. 18. Almagro A. 8. Valencia M. 4. Paredes J. 5. Altuna A. 19. Diaz M. 17. Carabali E.
Substitutes
19. Blanco J. 14. Briones R. 31. Carabali B. 29. Cuero Q. C. A. 30. Espinosa D. S. 2. Garcia A. 1. Lanzillotta F. (G) 10. Luna Tobar C. 8. Mina A. 23. Mohor J. 11. Munoz A. 32. Sanabria M.	54. Caicedo B. 25. Caicedo Piyajo L. D. 33. Cardenas Salazar O. B. (G) 2. Delgado F. 9. Magoia A. 27. Ortiz J. 22. Serpa T. 28. Suarez F. 10. Tapia R.
Coaches
Espinoza G.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Jaramillo R. ⚽,
43', Hurtado K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Hurtado K. ↓, Delgado F. ↑,
46', Almagro A. ↓, Magoia A. ↑,
57', Paredes J. ↓, Serpa T. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Cano L. (Pen),
65', Delgado F. 🟨,
67', Cano L. 🟨,
72', 3 - 0, Medina J. ⚽,
73', Batalla H. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
79', Jaramillo R. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
79', Cano L. ↓, Mohor J. ↑,
83', Altuna A. 🟨,
84', Medina J. ↓, Blanco J. ↑,
84', Vega E. ↓, Luna Tobar C. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Play Offs: Final) and 8).

Aucas is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Cumbayá is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Aucas is absolute favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Aucas won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aucas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.03.24	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
24.03.24	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
20.03.24	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:4 ✺
16.03.24	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:2 ✺
10.03.24	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WTLWW
- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.03.24	Cumbayá - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Imbabura - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
19.03.24	Cumbayá - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
15.03.24	Independiente del Valle - Cumbayá	3:0 ✺
10.03.24	Cumbayá - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.09.23	Cumbayá - SD Aucas	1:1
24.04.23	SD Aucas - Cumbayá	2:1
02.10.22	Cumbayá - SD Aucas	0:0
07.05.22	SD Aucas - Cumbayá	1:0

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