Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 16

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.48	3.25	2.62	Watch
	2.6	3.35	2.72
	2.63	3.1	2.72	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.6
	2.59	3.2	2.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	2.67 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
36.2%

Draw
29.2%

SD Aucas
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.7%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

29.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Aucas will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 2. Flor F. 6. Negro B. 33. Hernandez J. 32. Orejuela C. 5. Davila E. 18. Gonzalez J. 77. Velasco K. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Carrillo R.	13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 6. Spina A. L. 10. Preciado E. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 33. Porozo S.
Substitutes
12. Carabali F. 15. Cela A. 50. Cusme J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 7. Minda T. 42. Pabon W. (G) 17. Pico O. 1. Tapia C. (G) 8. Zambrano A.	29. Arroyo L. 11. Bolanos R. 12. Cabezas J. (G) 31. Carabali B. 20. Espinosa D. S. 91. Luna D. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.
Coaches
Velez P.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Hernandez J. 🟨,
9', Gustavino L. 🟨,
35', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
35', Spina A. L. 🟨,
45+4', Porozo S. 🟨,
45+4', Formento R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Gustavino L. 🟥,
71', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
75', Orejuela C. ↓, Pico O. ↑,
80', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
81', Guzman P. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
81', Preciado E. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
81', Porozo S. ↓, Espinosa D. S. ↑,
90', Ibarra R. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
90', Gonzalez J. 🟥,
90+5', Pico O. ↓, Lemos L. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2.

Mushuc Runa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Aucas has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aucas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:31. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 0.9:1.6).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:2 ✺
17.05.26	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
11.05.26	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 TLLLW
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.05.26	SD Aucas - Manta	3:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
21.05.26	San Antonio - SD Aucas	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.02.26	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:1
16.08.25	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	1:0
27.04.25	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	2:0
15.09.24	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:2
30.03.24	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:2
29.10.23	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	4:0
20.05.23	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:0

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