Match Info

Date: 13 May 2021, Thursday


	SD Aucas		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2	3.75	3.25	Watch
	2	3.5	3.2
	1.98	3.65	3.1	Watch
	2.01	3.5	3.15
	2.09	3.7	3.23
	2.1	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2	3.5	3.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.23)	3.59 ↑ (3.52)	3.23 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
45.6%

Draw
25.8%

FBC Melgar
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

26.3%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

18.3%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-16.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SD Aucas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

SD Aucas - FBC Melgar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Aucas has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Melgar is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Melgar have a series of home games.

Aucas will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aucas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.21	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.21	Metropolitanos - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.21	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.21	FBC Melgar - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
20.04.21	SD Aucas - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTLL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
08.05.21	FBC Melgar - Alianza Atlético	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.05.21	FBC Melgar - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.21	Escuela Municipal Binacional - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.21	FBC Melgar - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
24.04.21	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
28.04.21	FBC Melgar - SD Aucas	2:0

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