Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 24

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	SD Aucas		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.3	5	Watch
	1.68	3.30	4.50
	1.75	3.25	4.65	Watch
	1.89	3.34	4.7
	1.76	3.46	4.85	Watch
	1.85	3.15	4.65
	1.76	3.32	5.02	Watch
	1.76	3.2	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.64)	3.29 ↓ (3.5)	4.75 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
52.3%

Draw
28.2%

Leones del Norte
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

26.4%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

24.6%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

The ML Model estimate for SD Aucas aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

SD Aucas - Leones del Norte Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Leones del Norte will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aucas: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 2. Morales S. 63. Garcia A. 6. Spina A. L. 11. Bolanos R. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 10. Preciado E.	45. Nazareno L. (G) 4. Arroyo R. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 16. De La Cruz M. 29. Madero P. 6. Griffa E. 99. Solano C. 70. Pazmino D. 34. Portocarrero S. 40. Anangono J. (C)
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 4. Burdisso M. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 5. Serpa T. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.	17. Amilivia T. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 27. Caicedo Nestor 5. Coppo T. 14. Folleco A. 25. Kreiman B. 19. Pepinos E. 3. Vargas F. 8. Velez C.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Cordoba M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Monserrat N. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Preciado E. (Penalty Awarded),
31', 2 - 0, Bolanos R. ⚽, Preciado E. (A),
45+1', Griffa E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Griffa E. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
46', Zova A. ↓, Burdisso M. ↑,
46', De La Cruz M. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
48', 3 - 0, Bolanos R. ⚽, Preciado E. (A),
58', Solano C. ↓, Kreiman B. ↑,
63', Preciado E. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
67', Pazmino D. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,
74', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
74', Bolanos R. ↓, Andrade J. M. ↑,
80', Quinonez R. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
85', Madero P. ↓, Coppo T. ↑,
87', Guzman P. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aucas is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Aucas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.08.26	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
26.07.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:4 ✺
23.07.26	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
19.07.26	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
16.07.26	SD Aucas - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWL
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.08.26	Leones del Norte - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
30.07.26	LDU Quito - Leones del Norte	6:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.26	Delfín - Leones del Norte	0:1 ✺
23.07.26	Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	LDU Quito - Leones del Norte	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1

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