Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 21

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Referee: Andrade Arreaga J. C. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Orense		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.10	2.75	Watch
	2.45	2.90	2.70
	2.60	3.15	2.65	Watch
	2.57	3.24	2.96
	2.6	3.11	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.20	2.85
	2.66	3.11	2.70	Watch
	2.48	3.00	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.65)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.77 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Orense
36.6%

Draw
29.9%

SD Aucas
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

29.2%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.5%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Orense - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Aucas will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz J. (G) 5. Lorenzo A. 6. Callegari S. 4. Quinonez S. 15. Caicedo B. (C) 7. Vasquez S. 21. Rostagno G. 25. Jaramilo R. 11. Herrera A. 10. Parrales M. 19. Bermudez M.	13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 2. Morales S. 63. Garcia A. 14. Tapiero S. 10. Preciado E. 11. Bolanos R. 18. Mena A. 57. Vera M. 29. Arroyo L.
Substitutes
8. Armas D. 52. Bravo Y. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 57. Mairongo S. 13. Mena A. 14. Pluas E. 2. Quinonez B. 33. Quintero D. 12. Silva R. (G) 77. Vinan B. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S.	31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 21. Guzman P. 5. Serpa T.
Coaches
Torres H.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Arroyo L. ⚽, Bolanos R. (A),
27', Quinonez S. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Vasquez S. ⚽, Herrera A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Bolanos R. ↓, Guzman P. ↑,
58', 2 - 1, Quinonez S. ⚽, Vasquez S. (A),
61', Jaramilo R. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
75', Bermudez M. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
75', Garcia A. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
90+1', Vera M. ↓, Serpa T. ↑,
90+1', Rostagno G. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
90+2', Parrales M. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.

Orense has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Aucas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Orense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:21. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Last Results with these Odds

SD Aucas - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.08%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Orense - Emelec	0:2 ✺
11.07.26	Manta - Orense	0:0 ✺
06.07.26	Orense - Técnico Universitario	1:2 ✺
01.07.26	LDU Quito - Orense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.07.26	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
16.07.26	SD Aucas - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
12.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
07.07.26	SD Aucas - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.03.26	SD Aucas - Orense	3:2
21.09.25	SD Aucas - Orense	0:0
24.05.25	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1
02.08.24	Orense - SD Aucas	4:0
02.03.24	SD Aucas - Orense	2:0
03.12.23	Orense - SD Aucas	1:2
23.06.23	SD Aucas - Orense	2:0

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