Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 23 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	SD Aucas		Racing

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.2	3.3	3.35
	2.2	3.42	3.49
	2	3.2	3.2
	2.13	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.17	3.3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.57)	3.32 ↑ (3.3)	3.33 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
43.7%

Draw
28.2%

Racing
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

28.2%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SD Aucas's performance.

Racing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Racing might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SD Aucas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Racing could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

SD Aucas - Racing Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aucas: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Recent matches Aucas is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Racing has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Racing could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Aucas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aucas won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.05.23	Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
13.05.23	SD Aucas - Gualaceo	1:0 ✺
07.05.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	5:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.05.23	Ñublense - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.04.23	SD Aucas - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLLW
- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.05.23	Platense - Racing	3:0 ✺
08.05.23	Racing - Talleres de Córdoba	2:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.05.23	Racing - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.04.23	Boca Juniors - Racing	3:1 ✺
24.04.23	Racing - Atlético Tucumán	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
20.04.23	Racing - SD Aucas	3:2

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