Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 23

Date: 4 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Abisso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport


	SPAL		Bari

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.45	Watch
	3	3.1	2.37
	3.1	3	2.4	Watch
	2.9	2.95	2.38
	3.34	3.04	2.51
	3.2	3	2.35
	3.14	3.04	2.44	Watch
	3	3.05	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.9)	3.04 ↑ (2.9)	2.42 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
30.3%

Draw
30.9%

Bari
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

31.3%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	45.5%	18.2%

SPAL - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Bari will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

SPAL has the most likely position - 17 (9.87%), has project points - 45, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (32%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bari has the most likely position - 4 (13%), has project points - 56, has currently - 33, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (65%), has a chance of promoted (19%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 34, importance 37, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches SPAL is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bari is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

SPAL could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 4 head-to-head matches SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
27.01.23	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1 ✺
21.01.23	SPAL - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
14.01.23	Reggina - SPAL	0:1 ✺
26.12.22	SPAL - Pisa	0:1 ✺
18.12.22	Parma - SPAL	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 LTWLW
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
28.01.23	Bari - Perugia	0:2 ✺
20.01.23	Palermo - Bari	1:0 ✺
14.01.23	Bari - Parma	4:0 ✺
26.12.22	Bari - Genoa	1:2 ✺
17.12.22	Reggina - Bari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
03.09.22	Bari - SPAL	2:2
Coppa Italia
30.09.20	SPAL - Bari	1:0 penalties
Italian Serie B
18.05.17	SPAL - Bari	2:1
29.12.16	Bari - SPAL	1:1

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