Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 18

Date: 18 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Parma		SPAL

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	6	Watch
	1.68	3.6	5.25
	1.65	3.65	5.2
	1.66	3.45	5.4
	1.69	3.73	5.89
	1.63	3.5	5.8
	1.66	3.75	5.2	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.78)	3.61 ↑ (3.4)	5.52 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
56.9%

Draw
26.1%

SPAL
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

27.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

20.7%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-17.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Parma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that SPAL could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.4%	5.3%	6.3%

Parma - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: Parma will win (84 of 95 users predict this - 88.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.99% – 94.85%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out)).

Parma has the most likely position - 2 (14.62%), has project points - 60, has currently - 26, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a chance of promoted (38%), has a small chance of win league (9%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (10.76%), has project points - 43, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (40%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 35, importance 49, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Parma won 1.

Recent matches Parma is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

SPAL is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Parma could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Parma is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Parma won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Parma won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie B
12.12.22	Brescia - Parma	0:2 ✺
08.12.22	Parma - Benevento	0:1 ✺
03.12.22	Cagliari - Parma	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Parma - Modena	1:2 ✺
12.11.22	Parma - Cittadella	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTLW
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
11.12.22	SPAL - Palermo	1:1 ✺
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0 ✺
04.12.22	SPAL - Modena	2:3 ✺
27.11.22	Brescia - SPAL	2:0 ✺
12.11.22	SPAL - Benevento	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.02.22	Parma - SPAL	4:0
02.10.21	SPAL - Parma	2:2
Italian Serie A
08.03.20	Parma - SPAL	0:1
05.10.19	SPAL - Parma	1:0
27.01.19	Parma - SPAL	2:3
26.08.18	SPAL - Parma	1:0

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