Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 22

Date: 27 January 2023, Friday

Location: Unipol Domus (Cagliari)

Referee: Paterna D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Cagliari		SPAL

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	5	Watch
	1.7	3.6	5
	1.62	3.7	5.4
	1.67	3.55	5
	1.68	3.78	5.89
	1.73	3.4	5
	1.66	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.67	3.7	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.78)	3.63 ↑ (3.25)	5.21 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cagliari
56.1%

Draw
25.9%

SPAL
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

28.1%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

27.8%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	10%	3.3%

Cagliari - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: Cagliari will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).

Cagliari has the most likely position - 6 (10.59%), has project points - 55, has currently - 29, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a chance of promoted (16%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 15 (8.76%), has project points - 46, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (14%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 35, importance 33, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cagliari won 3.

Cagliari is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches SPAL is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Cagliari is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Cagliari won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Cagliari won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie B
21.01.23	Cittadella - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
14.01.23	Cagliari - Como	2:0 ✺
26.12.22	Cagliari - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
18.12.22	Palermo - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWLW
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
21.01.23	SPAL - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
14.01.23	Reggina - SPAL	0:1 ✺
26.12.22	SPAL - Pisa	0:1 ✺
18.12.22	Parma - SPAL	0:1 ✺
11.12.22	SPAL - Palermo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.08.22	SPAL - Cagliari	1:0
Italian Serie A
23.06.20	SPAL - Cagliari	0:1
20.10.19	Cagliari - SPAL	2:0
07.04.19	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1
10.11.18	SPAL - Cagliari	2:2
04.02.18	Cagliari - SPAL	2:0
17.09.17	SPAL - Cagliari	0:2

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