Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 19

Date: 26 December 2022, Monday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport


	Bari		Genoa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3	2.38	Watch
	3.1	2.95	2.4
	3.15	2.9	2.45
	3.15	2.9	2.39
	3.44	3.05	2.45
	3.2	2.9	2.4
	3.32	2.84	2.45	Watch
	3.15	3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.83)	2.94 ↓ (3.08)	2.41 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
29.1%

Draw
31.9%

Genoa
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

29.4%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.2%	20.7%	24.1%

Bari - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 16 - 55.2%). Genoa will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bari: 37.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Bari has the most likely position - 2 (14.1%), has project points - 60, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (56%), has a chance of promoted (34%), has a small chance of win league (10%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (15.23%), has project points - 61, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a chance of promoted (39%), has a small chance of win league (12%).

This event has quality 39, importance 69, match rating 54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Bari is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Genoa is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
17.12.22	Reggina - Bari	0:0 ✺
11.12.22	Bari - Modena	4:1 ✺
08.12.22	Cittadella - Bari	0:3 ✺
04.12.22	Bari - Pisa	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Como - Bari	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWWTT
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
18.12.22	Genoa - Frosinone	1:0 ✺
11.12.22	Ascoli - Genoa	0:0 ✺
08.12.22	Genoa - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0 ✺
04.12.22	Genoa - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTWLL

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