Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 22

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno


	Bari		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.25
	2.25	3.05	3.3	Watch
	2.26	3.05	3.25
	2.34	3.16	3.53
	2	3.1	4
	2.28	3.06	3.42	Watch
	2.25	3.15	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.07)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	3.39 ↓ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
42.1%

Draw
30.3%

Perugia
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

29.3%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

31.7%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	21.1%	5.3%

Bari - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Perugia will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bari: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Bari has the most likely position - 4 (15.77%), has project points - 59, has currently - 33, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (70%), has a chance of promoted (27%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 19 (18.2%), has project points - 41, has currently - 20, has a good chance of relegated (55%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 33, importance 42, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bari won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Perugia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Bari will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Bari won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Bari won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
20.01.23	Palermo - Bari	1:0 ✺
14.01.23	Bari - Parma	4:0 ✺
26.12.22	Bari - Genoa	1:2 ✺
17.12.22	Reggina - Bari	0:0 ✺
11.12.22	Bari - Modena	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLTW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
21.01.23	Parma - Perugia	2:0 ✺
14.01.23	Perugia - Palermo	3:3 ✺
26.12.22	Benevento - Perugia	0:2 ✺
19.12.22	Perugia - Venezia	2:1 ✺
11.12.22	Cagliari - Perugia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
28.08.22	Perugia - Bari	1:3
05.05.18	Bari - Perugia	3:1
16.12.17	Perugia - Bari	1:3
28.01.17	Bari - Perugia	0:0
03.09.16	Perugia - Bari	0:1
30.04.16	Perugia - Bari	0:0
13.12.15	Bari - Perugia	1:0

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