Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 25

Date: 18 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Gariglio M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	SPAL		Como

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.25	2.6	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
	2.8	3.3	2.45
	2.98	3.17	2.66
	3	3.1	2.45
	2.71	3.3	2.59	Watch
	2.8	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.52)	3.2 ↑ (3.1)	2.55 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
33.4%

Draw
29.6%

Como
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

30.3%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

29.7%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	53.8%	7.7%

SPAL - Como Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Como will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 14).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (13.95%), has project points - 42, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Como has the most likely position - 17 (10.95%), has project points - 45, has currently - 27, has a chance of relegated (32%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 57, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

SPAL is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Como is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
11.02.23	Venezia - SPAL	2:1 ✺
04.02.23	SPAL - Bari	3:4 ✺
27.01.23	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1 ✺
21.01.23	SPAL - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
14.01.23	Reggina - SPAL	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLLTW
- Calcio Como
Italian Serie B
11.02.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Como	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Como - Frosinone	0:2 ✺
28.01.23	Brescia - Como	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Como - Pisa	2:2 ✺
14.01.23	Cagliari - Como	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
17.09.22	Como - SPAL	3:3
05.03.22	Como - SPAL	0:2
24.10.21	SPAL - Como	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
25.02.15	Como - SPAL	0:0
11.02.15	SPAL - Como	0:2

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