Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 24

Date: 11 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo (Venice)

Referee: Cosso F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Venezia		SPAL

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.3	4
	1.87	3.35	4.2
	2	3.36	4.33
	1.91	3.2	4.2
	1.9	3.44	4.15	Watch
	1.94	3.35	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.22)	3.34 ↑ (3)	4.14 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Venezia
49%

Draw
28.2%

SPAL
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

31.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

31.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Venezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Venezia's performance.

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Venezia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	52.9%	11.8%

Venezia - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Venezia will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). SPAL will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 52.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Venezia has the most likely position - 17 (10.19%), has project points - 44, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (33%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (12.34%), has project points - 43, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (42%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, importance 55, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Venezia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Venezia is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Venezia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Venezia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Venezia FC
Italian Serie B
04.02.23	Benevento - Venezia	1:2 ✺
28.01.23	Venezia - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
21.01.23	Venezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
16.01.23	Genoa - Venezia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.01.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Venezia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTLLL
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
04.02.23	SPAL - Bari	3:4 ✺
27.01.23	Cagliari - SPAL	2:1 ✺
21.01.23	SPAL - Ascoli	1:1 ✺
14.01.23	Reggina - SPAL	0:1 ✺
26.12.22	SPAL - Pisa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
11.09.22	SPAL - Venezia	2:0
05.04.21	SPAL - Venezia	1:1
19.12.20	Venezia - SPAL	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
22.10.14	SPAL - Venezia	1:0

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