Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 38

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256


	SPAL		Gubbio

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.4
	1.92	3.4	3.8
	2	3.25	3.28
	2.04	3.37	3.6	Watch
	2	3.2	3.49	Watch
	1.92	3.4	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.99)	3.34 ↓ (3.68)	3.56 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
46.7%

Draw
27.5%

Gubbio
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

24.9%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

24.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Gubbio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gubbio than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

SPAL - Gubbio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. SPAL (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gubbio (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. SPAL (votes: 1 - 50%). Gubbio (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Galeotti C. (G) 23. Arena M. 6. Fiordaliso A. 3. Bruscagin M. (C) 28. Calapai L. 5. Awua T. 4. Paghera F. 18. Ntenda J. 40. Spini C. 25. Molina J. I. 27. Parigini V.	1. Bolletta L. (G) 15. Signorini A. (C) 33. Rocchi G. 4. Tozzuolo A. 5. D'Avino L. 21. Corsinelli F. 8. Rosaia G. 19. Faggi F. 7. D'Ursi E. 17. Spina M. 10. Di Massimo A.
Substitutes
7. Antenucci M. 26. Bassoli A. 77. Bidaoui S. 33. D'Orazio L. 8. El Kaddouri O. 15. Haoudi H. 9. Karlsson O. 22. Meneghetti M. (G) 29. Nador S. 99. Nina C. 10. Radrezza I. 11. Rao E. 20. Zammarini R. 31. Zenti A. (G)	25. David A. 78. Iaccarino G. 28. Maisto F. 80. Proietti M. 11. Rovaglia P. 3. Tentardini A. 9. Tommasini C. 22. Venturi G. (G) 24. Zallu F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Arena M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 2 - 0, Parigini V. ⚽,
58', Parigini V. ↓, D'Orazio L. ↑,
60', Rosaia G. ↓, Tommasini C. ↑,
60', Faggi F. ↓, Proietti M. ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Spini C. ⚽,
66', Paghera F. 🟨,
67', Di Massimo A. ↓, David A. ↑,
67', Spina M. ↓, Maisto F. ↑,
68', Molina J. I. ↓, Antenucci M. ↑,
68', Paghera F. ↓, Bassoli A. ↑,
78', D'Avino L. ↓, Rovaglia P. ↑,
81', Spini C. ↓, El Kaddouri O. ↑,
82', Ntenda J. ↓, Rao E. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 11).

SPAL is Serie C ~ Play Out

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Gubbio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

SPAL will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in SPAL: Karlsson O. (Injury)

There will not play in Gubbio: Franchini S. (Inactive) Giovannini R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in SPAL: Camelio U. (Muscle Injury) Parravicini F. (Heart Problems) Sottini E. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 1.2:0.4).

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.25	Vis Pesaro - SPAL	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	SPAL - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Sassari Torres - SPAL	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	SPAL - Legnago Salus	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Pineto - SPAL	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTTTL
- AS Gubbio 1910
Italian Serie C Group B
23.04.25	Gubbio - Milan Futuro	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Pescara - Gubbio	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Gubbio - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Carpi - Gubbio	0:2 ✺
23.03.25	Gubbio - Virtus Entella	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
15.12.24	Gubbio - SPAL	1:1
07.04.24	SPAL - Gubbio	3:0
02.12.23	Gubbio - SPAL	0:0
01.02.15	SPAL - Gubbio	1:0
17.09.14	Gubbio - SPAL	1:1

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