Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 15

Date: 4 December 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	SPAL		Modena

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.7
	2.6	3	2.8
	2.6	3.1	2.7
	2.79	3.12	2.88
	2.7	3	2.75
	2.7	2.93	2.86	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.38)	3.06 ↓ (3.1)	2.77 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
35.3%

Draw
30.8%

Modena
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	48%	12%

SPAL - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 10 - 40%). Modena will win (votes: 3 - 12%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 48%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.4% – 67.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 12).

SPAL has the most likely position - 16 (8.36%), has project points - 46, has currently - 15, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (17%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Modena has the most likely position - 16 (8.09%), has project points - 46, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (18%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, importance 37, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

SPAL could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

SPAL will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
27.11.22	Brescia - SPAL	2:0 ✺
12.11.22	SPAL - Benevento	1:2 ✺
05.11.22	Ternana - SPAL	0:0 ✺
29.10.22	SPAL - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
22.10.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTW
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
26.11.22	Parma - Modena	1:2 ✺
12.11.22	Modena - Perugia	1:1 ✺
05.11.22	Cittadella - Modena	0:0 ✺
29.10.22	Modena - Palermo	0:2 ✺
23.10.22	Pisa - Modena	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTTLL

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