Match Info

3. Liga - Round 38

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Ludwigspark Stadion (Saarbrücken)

Referee: Kampka R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, SR Fernsehen
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Saarbrücken		Borussia Dortmund II

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.75	4.75
	1.53	4.6	5
	1.54	4.5	5
	1.5	4.9	5.32
	1.5	4.61	5.27	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5
	1.49	4.6	5.17	Watch
	1.48	4.8	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.58)	4.62 ↑ (4.23)	5.09 ↑ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saarbrücken
61.7%

Draw
20.1%

Borussia Dortmund II
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

22%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

21.3%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saarbrücken has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Borussia Dortmund II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saarbrücken than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund II than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Saarbrücken - Borussia Dortmund II Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Saarbrücken will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Borussia Dortmund II will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saarbrücken (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Borussia Dortmund II (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Saarbrücken (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Saarbrücken (votes: 3 - 75%). Borussia Dortmund II (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paterok T. (G) 17. Becker D. 4. Sonnenberg S. 27. Bichsel J. 2. Fahrner P. 8. Zeitz M. (C) 6. Sontheimer P. 7. Rizzuto C. 10. Rabihic K. 9. Brunker K. 29. Kruger F.	35. Lotka M. (G) 17. Gobel P. 15. Huning B. 34. Luhrs Y. 42. Kabar A. 6. Azhil A. (C) 36. Reitz T. 43. Krevsun D. 38. Watjen K. 20. Hettwer J. 5. Foti A.
Substitutes
23. Civeja T. 38. Cymer R. (G) 20. Gunther-Schmidt J. 5. Krahn E. 11. Multhaup M. 16. Thoelke B. 19. Vasiliadis S. 18. Wilhelm L.	39. Aning P. 24. Benkara E. 7. Besong P. 28. Cherny N. 26. Drakas B. 27. Lelle D. 31. Ostrzinski S. (G)
Coaches
Schwartz A.	Tullberg M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Hettwer J. ⚽, Reitz T. (A),
42', Azhil A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Zeitz M. ↓, Vasiliadis S. ↑,
55', Hettwer J. ↓, Drakas B. ↑,
55', Watjen K. ↓, Aning P. ↑,
65', Fahrner P. ↓, Civeja T. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Brunker K. ⚽, Kruger F. (A),
70', Kabar A. ↓, Lelle D. ↑,
73', Foti A. 🟨,
75', Bichsel J. 🟨,
79', Brunker K. 🟨,
81', Azhil A. ↓, Besong P. ↑,
85', Brunker K. ↓, Schmidt P. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Schmidt P. ⚽,
89', Lelle D. 🟨,
90+1', Rabihic K. ↓, Krahn E. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 3.

Saarbrücken has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Borussia Dortmund II's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Saarbrücken may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Saarbrücken is the team to beat.

There will not play in Saarbrücken: Menzel P. (Illness) Naifi A. (Knee Injury) Neudecker R. (Ankle Injury) Sardo J. (Knee Injury) Stehle S. F. (Injury)

There will not play in Borussia Dortmund II: Eberwein M. (Yellow Cards) Elongo-Yombo R. (Yellow Cards) Irorere F. (Foot Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury) Paschke F. (Knee Injury) Paulina J. (Thigh Injury) Roggow F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Borussia Dortmund II: Campbell C. (Injury) Jessen N. (Head Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Saarbrücken won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Saarbrücken
German 3 Bundesliga
10.05.25	Alemannia Aachen - Saarbrücken	4:2 ✺
03.05.25	Saarbrücken - Verl	4:3 ✺
26.04.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Saarbrücken	0:3 ✺
20.04.25	Saarbrücken - Dynamo Dresden	1:4 ✺
11.04.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWLT
- Borussia Dortmund II
German 3 Bundesliga
09.05.25	Borussia Dortmund II - VfB Stuttgart II	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Borussia Dortmund II	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Borussia Dortmund II - Hannover II	0:4 ✺
20.04.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Borussia Dortmund II	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Borussia Dortmund II - Energie Cottbus	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
21.12.24	Borussia Dortmund II - Saarbrücken	0:0
02.02.24	Borussia Dortmund II - Saarbrücken	1:1
01.09.23	Saarbrücken - Borussia Dortmund II	2:0
11.02.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Saarbrücken	1:2
10.08.22	Saarbrücken - Borussia Dortmund II	1:0
26.01.22	Saarbrücken - Borussia Dortmund II	2:0
21.08.21	Borussia Dortmund II - Saarbrücken	0:0

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