Match Info

J1 League - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Japan	DAZN Japan
Vietnam	VTV Go


	Avispa Fukuoka		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.5	1.79	Watch
	4.4	3.7	1.75
	4.50	3.65	1.70	Watch
	4.61	3.85	1.81
	4.59	3.97	1.71	Watch
	4.50	3.80	1.78
	4.51	3.77	1.78	Watch
	4.40	3.65	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.91)	3.74 ↓ (3.78)	1.76 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avispa Fukuoka
21.2%

Draw
25.3%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

25%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

24.3%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Hiroshima (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Obata Y. (G) 5. Kamijima T. (C) 37. Tashiro M. 15. Tsujioka Y. 33. Yamawaki K. 34. Shiihashi K. 11. Miki T. 29. Maejima Y. 6. Shigemi M. 25. Kitajima Y. 13. Morooka S.	1. Osako K. (G) 15. Nakano S. 4. Araki H. 19. Sasaki S. (C) 32. Koshimichi S. 5. Arai N. 14. Matsumoto T. 7. Higashi S. 11. Kato M. 10. Suzuki A. 23. Ayukawa S.
Substitutes
32. Brown A. 47. Hashimoto Y. 49. Maeda I. 38. Miya D. 1. Nagaishi T. (G) 14. Nago S. 21. Romeu O. 56. Sakai Y. 2. Yuzawa M.	47. Hara M. 8. Kawamura T. 45. Kobayashi S. 41. Maeda N. 48. Ota H. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 18. Suga D. 21. Tanaka Y. (G) 9. Yengi K.
Coaches
Tsukahara S.	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Yamawaki K. 🟨,
19', Suzuki A. 🟨,
24', Kamijima T. 🟥,
30', Matsumoto T. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
32', Miki T. 🟨,
36', Suga D. 🟨,
45', Kitajima Y. ↓, Nago S. ↑,
45+6', Miki T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Koshimichi S. ↓, Kobayashi S. ↑,
58', Shigemi M. ↓, Miya D. ↑,
58', Yamawaki K. ↓, Yuzawa M. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Higashi S. ⚽, Kobayashi S. (A),
72', Tsujioka Y. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
76', Kato M. ↓, Kawamura T. ↑,
82', Maejima Y. ↓, Maeda I. ↑,
83', Shiihashi K. ↓, Romeu O. ↑,
90', Ayukawa S. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 3.

Recent results have been tough for Avispa Fukuoka (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Hiroshima is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Hiroshima for this game.

Confirmed absences for Avispa Fukuoka: Fukushima K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Hiroshima: Asano T. (Calf Injury) Yamasaki T. (Knee Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Avispa Fukuoka has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:31 (averaging 0.9:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Avispa Fukuoka against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:17 goals (averaging 1.1:1.9 per game).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 11.31% Avispa Fukuoka: 0.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8:2	6	8
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3

Last Results with these Odds

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.82%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
12.09.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Mito HollyHock	1:1 ✺
02.09.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Verspah Oita	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTLLW
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
12.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	6:1 ✺
06.09.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 ✺
02.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Okinawa SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
29.04.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 penalties
05.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1
27.09.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2
Japan J League Cup
08.06.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1
04.06.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0
Japan J1 League
03.05.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1
14.07.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0

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