Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 19

Date: 22 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Kyoto Sanga

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.55
	2.62	3.26	2.52	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.66
	2.75	3.41	2.66
	2.5	3.4	2.45
	2.67	3.53	2.57	Watch
	2.6	3.35	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.51)	3.38 ↓ (3.41)	2.57 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
35.6%

Draw
27.8%

Kyoto Sanga
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

27.9%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.6%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Sagan Tosu - Kyoto Sanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Kyoto will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tosu: 6.6% – 60%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 3. Kimura S. 2. Yamazaki K. 16. Ueebisu K. 6. Fukuta A. 5. Kawahara S. 88. Naganuma Y. 21. Horigome Y. 13. Yokoyama A. 99. Marcelo Ryan	94. Gu Sung-Yun (G) 2. Fukuda S. 24. Miyamoto Y. 50. Suzuki Y. 44. Sato K. 19. Kaneko D. 7. Kawasaki S. 39. Hirato T. 23. Toyokawa Y. 14. Hara T. 18. Matsuda T.
Substitutes
11. Araujo V. 14. Fujita N. 23. Kikuchi T. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 1. Riera Rodriguez A. (G) 7. Tezuka K. 22. Togashi C.	5. Appiah Tawiah H. 10. Fukuoka S. 22. Ichimi K. 9. Marco Tulio 26. Ota G. (G) 28. Suzuki T. 11. Yamasaki R.
Coaches
Kawai K.	Cho K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Marcelo Ryan ⚽, Horigome Y. (A),
60', 2 - 0, Marcelo Ryan ⚽,
63', Hara T. ↓, Marco Tulio ↑,
63', Matsuda T. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
63', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
65', Horigome Y. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
67', Sato K. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
77', 3 - 0, Naganuma Y. ⚽, Kikuchi T. (A),
77', Yokoyama A. ↓, Togashi C. ↑,
78', Kawahara S. ↓, Fujita N. ↑,
80', Kawasaki S. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
85', Fukuta A. ↓, Tezuka K. ↑,
85', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Araujo V. ↑,
86', Fukuoka S. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3.

Tosu is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Kyoto is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
16.06.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Sagan Tosu - Kochi United	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
31.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
22.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
18.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL
- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
15.06.24	Kyoto Sanga - Consadole Sapporo	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.06.24	Kyoto Sanga - Omiya Ardija	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
01.06.24	Kyoto Sanga - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
26.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
19.05.24	Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.09.23	Sagan Tosu - Kyoto Sanga	3:2
23.04.23	Kyoto Sanga - Sagan Tosu	2:3
01.10.22	Sagan Tosu - Kyoto Sanga	0:1
Japan J League Cup
23.04.22	Sagan Tosu - Kyoto Sanga	3:0
Japan J1 League
10.04.22	Kyoto Sanga - Sagan Tosu	3:1
Japan J League Cup
02.03.22	Kyoto Sanga - Sagan Tosu	2:1

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