Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 17

Date: 31 May 2024, Friday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Tokyo

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.25
	2.92	3.36	2.28	Watch
	3.05	3.64	2.33
	3.03	3.64	2.33
	2.88	3.5	2.15
	3.08	3.53	2.28	Watch
	3.05	3.4	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.99)	3.5 ↓ (3.75)	2.27 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
31.4%

Draw
27%

Tokyo
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

25.1%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

24.8%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Tokyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	41.7%	33.3%

Sagan Tosu - Tokyo Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Tokyo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 88. Naganuma Y. 2. Yamazaki K. 16. Ueebisu K. 28. Maruhashi Y. 5. Kawahara S. 7. Tezuka K. 22. Togashi C. 23. Kikuchi T. 13. Yokoyama A. 99. Marcelo Ryan	41. Nozawa T. (G) 38. Anzai S. 4. Kimoto Y. 44. Henrique Trevisan 49. Bangnagande K. 8. Ko T. 37. Koizumi K. 7. Matsuki K. 39. Nakagawa T. 71. Araki R. 33. Tawaratsumida K.
Substitutes
11. Araujo V. 14. Fujita N. 18. Hino S. 21. Horigome Y. 9. Kawata A. 36. Kitajima F. 31. Okamoto M. (G)	9. Diego Oliveira 40. Harakawa R. 13. Hatano G. (G) 70. Jaja 3. Morishige M. 2. Nakamura H. 43. Tokumoto S.
Coaches
Kawai K.	Cklamovski P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Kimoto Y. ⚽, Ko T. (A),
35', Naganuma Y. 🟨,
44', Matsuki K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Yamazaki K. 🟨,
65', Nakagawa T. ↓, Nakamura H. ↑,
73', Maruhashi Y. ↓, Horigome Y. ↑,
76', Tawaratsumida K. ↓, Jaja ↑,
76', Matsuki K. ↓, Diego Oliveira ↑,
82', Togashi C. ↓, Araujo V. ↑,
83', Tezuka K. ↓, Fujita N. ↑,
83', Kikuchi T. ↓, Kitajima F. ↑,
87', Yokoyama A. ↓, Kawata A. ↑,
88', Anzai S. ↓, Tokumoto S. ↑,
88', Araki R. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Tosu could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 10 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 29-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J League Cup
22.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
18.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	0:2 ✺
15.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Kawasaki Frontale	5:2 ✺
11.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	0:3 ✺
06.05.24	Shonan Bellmare - Sagan Tosu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LLWWL
- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
26.05.24	Tokyo - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
22.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
19.05.24	Tokyo - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:1 ✺
15.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo	3:1 ✺
11.05.24	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J League Cup
22.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:2 penalties
Japan J1 League
23.09.23	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	3:2
01.04.23	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:0
26.06.22	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	5:0
08.05.22	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	0:1
09.08.21	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:0
24.04.21	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	1:2

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