Match Info

J1 League - Round 17

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kyoto Sanga		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	1.96	Watch
	3.5	3.6	1.95
	3.55	3.45	1.95	Watch
	3.62	3.7	2.01
	3.6	3.56	2	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.95
	3.55	3.6	1.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↓ (3.7)	3.54 ↑ (3.47)	1.97 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
26.3%

Draw
26.3%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

26.7%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

26.4%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Murakami M. (G) 22. Sugai H. 50. Suzuki Y. 34. Henrique Trevisan 44. Sato K. 6. Joao Pedro 25. Yoon S. 48. Nakano R. 18. Matsuda T. 9. Rafael Elias (C) 17. Souza Alex	1. Osako K. (G) 33. Shiotani T. 3. Yamasaki T. 19. Sasaki S. (C) 15. Nakano S. 6. Kawabe H. 13. Arai N. 24. Higashi S. 11. Kato M. 39. Nakamura S. 10. Suzuki A.
Substitutes
5. Appiah Tawiah H. 77. Arai H. 3. Asada S. 16. Hiraoka T. 99. Honda F. 40. Ishida Y. 93. Nagasawa S. 7. Okugawa M. 1. Ota G. (G)	25. Chajima Y. 9. Germain R. 17. Kinoshita K. 45. Kobayashi S. 41. Maeda N. 14. Matsumoto T. 40. Ohara M. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 16. Shichi T.
Coaches
Jo Gwi-Jae	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Nakamura S. ⚽, Higashi S. (A),
36', Henrique Trevisan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Matsuda T. ↓, Honda F. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Suzuki A. ⚽, Kato M. (A),
51', 0 - 3, Kato M. ⚽, Higashi S. (A),
52', Nakano R. ↓, Arai H. ↑,
61', Arai N. 🟨,
64', Souza Alex ↓, Okugawa M. ↑,
65', Kato M. ↓, Germain R. ↑,
65', Arai N. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
66', Joao Pedro 🟨,
75', 0 - 4, Matsumoto T. ⚽, Nakamura S. (A),
76', Henrique Trevisan ↓, Asada S. ↑,
76', Sato K. ↓, Hiraoka T. ↑,
79', Nakamura S. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
79', Suzuki A. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
86', Kawabe H. ↓, Kobayashi S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 3.

Kyoto is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Hiroshima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hiroshima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hiroshima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Kyoto: Fukuoka S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Hiroshima: Araki H. (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.8:1.6).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 10.48% Kyoto: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	4	2	2	0	8:2	6	8
14	Kyoto	4	1	1	2	6:8	-2	4

Last Results with these Odds

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.25%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
13.05.26	Vissel Kobe - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
06.05.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Kyoto Sanga	2:1 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Vissel Kobe	1:2 penalties ✺
01.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:2
12.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:1
29.03.25	Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0
03.11.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	0:1
19.05.24	Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:5
23.09.23	Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0
04.06.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	3:1

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