Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 15

Date: 18 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Referee: Imamura Y. (Jpn)


	Sagan Tosu		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.37
	2.77	3.21	2.42	Watch
	2.92	3.34	2.56
	2.92	3.33	2.56
	2.8	3.2	2.3
	2.89	3.19	2.54	Watch
	2.9	3.15	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.23)	3.23 ↑ (3.21)	2.47 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
32.7%

Draw
29.2%

Nagoya Grampus
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

29.3%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

30%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	72.7%	18.2%

Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Nagoya will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 3. Kimura S. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 88. Naganuma Y. 5. Kawahara S. 7. Tezuka K. 22. Togashi C. 23. Kikuchi T. 13. Yokoyama A. 99. Marcelo Ryan	1. Langerak M. (G) 20. Mikuni K. 3. Ha Chang-Rae 5. Yoshida H. 34. Uchida T. 15. Inagaki S. 6. Yonemoto T. 7. Izumi R. 14. Morishima T. 17. Masui K. 10. Patric
Substitutes
11. Araujo V. 14. Fujita N. 18. Hino S. 9. Kawata A. 1. Riera Rodriguez A. (G) 16. Ueebisu K. 2. Yamazaki K.	77. Junker K. 24. Kawazura A. 18. Nagai K. 27. Nakayama K. 41. Ono M. 8. Shiihashi K. 16. Takeda Y. (G)
Coaches
Kawai K.	Hasegawa K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Inagaki S. ⚽, Patric (A),
12', Harada W. 🟨,
36', Harada W. 🟨,
45+6', Izumi R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Izumi R. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Masui K. ⚽,
54', Togashi C. ↓, Ueebisu K. ↑,
66', Tezuka K. ↓, Kawata A. ↑,
71', Patric ↓, Junker K. ↑,
76', Masui K. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
76', Uchida T. ↓, Ono M. ↑,
82', Marcelo Ryan ↓, Araujo V. ↑,
82', Kikuchi T. ↓, Hino S. ↑,
82', Kim Tae-Hyeon ↓, Fujita N. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Nagoya will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 8 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
15.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Kawasaki Frontale	5:2 ✺
11.05.24	Júbilo Iwata - Sagan Tosu	0:3 ✺
06.05.24	Shonan Bellmare - Sagan Tosu	2:1 ✺
03.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo Verdy	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Sagan Tosu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WWLLT
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
15.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo	3:1 ✺
11.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
06.05.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	2:3 ✺
03.05.24	Nagoya Grampus - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
27.10.23	Nagoya Grampus - Sagan Tosu	1:1
04.03.23	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	1:0
14.08.22	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	0:0
06.03.22	Nagoya Grampus - Sagan Tosu	1:1
17.07.21	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	3:1
18.04.21	Nagoya Grampus - Sagan Tosu	1:2
02.11.20	Sagan Tosu - Nagoya Grampus	0:0

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