Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 18

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Ryūkyū

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	3.9	4.8
	1.5	3.9	5.15	Watch
	1.51	4.1	5.1
	1.56	4.14	5.4	Watch
	1.5	3.8	5.5
	1.5	3.94	5.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.59)	3.96 ↑ (3.76)	5.26 ↑ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
59.8%

Draw
22.9%

Ryūkyū
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

24.3%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

23.5%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Ryūkyū has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Sagan Tosu - Ryūkyū Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 4. Imazu Y. 33. Ogawa S. 22. Yuba K. 2. Matsumoto N. 6. Sakurai T. 7. Sakamoto K. 18. Hyon R. 16. Nishizawa K. 88. Shiohama R.	1. Sato H. (G) 14. Suzuki J. 3. Kikuchi S. 22. Kamiya K. 27. Funabashi Y. 8. Horiuchi H. 16. Ihori K. 17. Kato Y. 23. Sota K. 11. Ishiura T. 39. Ihara A.
Substitutes
26. Ando T. 47. Izawa R. 3. Kamiyama K. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 8. Narahara Y. 15. Sakai N. 77. Slivka V. 20. Toyoda A. 43. Yoshino K.	15. Araki R. 9. Asakawa H. 46. Ikeda R. 13. Iwamoto S. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 18. Ueno Y. 21. Umeda R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
56', Funabashi Y. ↓, Araki R. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Nishizawa K. ⚽, Shiohama R. (A),
66', Sakamoto K. ↓, Yoshino K. ↑,
66', Hyon R. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
68', Ishiura T. ↓, Tomidokoro Y. ↑,
68', Kamiya K. ↓, Iwamoto S. ↑,
68', Ihara A. ↓, Ueno Y. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Yoshino K. ⚽, Shiohama R. (A),
80', 2 - 1, Tomidokoro Y. ⚽, Sota K. (A),
85', Shiohama R. ↓, Sakai N. ↑,
85', Matsumoto N. ↓, Toyoda A. ↑,
86', Suzuki J. ↓, Asakawa H. ↑,
90', Yuba K. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 2, Sota K. ⚽, Araki R. (A),
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Slivka V. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Tomidokoro Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Toyoda A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Asakawa H. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Yoshino K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Ueno Y. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ando T. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sota K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Sakurai T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Iwamoto S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Tosu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ryūkyū's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Tosu is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tosu won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tosu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ryūkyū - the odds 5.03 are the expected chance of winning is 18.18%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 J3 League
16.05.26	Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2 penalties ✺
10.05.26	Oita Trinita - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Sagan Tosu - Gainare Tottori	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Sagan Tosu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Kagoshima United - Sagan Tosu	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWL
- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J2 J3 League
17.05.26	Ryūkyū - Gainare Tottori	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Ryūkyū - Kagoshima United	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Ryūkyū	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
08.02.26	Ryūkyū - Sagan Tosu	2:2
Japan Emperors Cup
03.09.16	Sagan Tosu - Ryūkyū	3:1

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