Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 26

Date: 11 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	K-Ball
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Urawa Red Diamonds

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.7	2	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2
	3.26	3.7	1.98	Watch
	3.81	4.12	1.93
	3.4	3.86	2.01	Watch
	3.3	3.6	1.91
	3.37	3.77	2.04	Watch
	3.3	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (3.65)	3.76 ↑ (3.75)	1.98 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
27.8%

Draw
24.9%

Urawa Red Diamonds
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

25%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

24.4%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Urawa Red Diamonds has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Urawa Red Diamonds than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	22.2%	38.9%

Sagan Tosu - Urawa Red Diamonds Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Urawa will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tosu: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 3. Kimura S. 32. Sakaiya K. 6. Fukuta A. 5. Kawahara S. 8. Nakahara H. 18. Hino S. 27. Narahara Y. 99. Marcelo Ryan	1. Nishikawa S. (G) 4. Ishihara H. 23. Inoue R. 5. Hoibraaten M. 66. Ohata A. 11. Gustafson S. 25. Yasui K. 13. Watanabe R. 21. Okubo T. 41. Nitta R. 14. Sekine T.
Substitutes
70. Jaja 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 55. Kiyotake H. 28. Maruhashi Y. 33. Nishiya K. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 47. Suzuki D.	19. Homma S. 24. Matsuo Y. 88. Naganuma Y. 10. Nakajima S. 16. Niekawa A. (G) 20. Sato Y. 47. Takeda H.
Coaches
Kitani K.	Hogmo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Inoue R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Narahara Y. ↓, Jaja ↑,
61', Sakaiya K. ↓, Maruhashi Y. ↑,
63', Nitta R. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Matsuo Y. ⚽, Sekine T. (A),
77', Hino S. ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
77', Okubo T. ↓, Homma S. ↑,
78', Yasui K. ↓, Takeda H. ↑,
79', Nishikawa S. 🟥,
83', Sekine T. ↓, Niekawa A. ↑,
83', Watanabe R. ↓, Naganuma Y. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Marcelo Ryan (Pen),
90+6', Harada W. ↓, Nishiya K. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 2.

Recent matches Tosu is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Urawa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Urawa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Urawa have a series of home games.

In this match Urawa is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 21-31.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
07.08.24	Kashima Antlers - Sagan Tosu	3:0 ✺
21.07.24	Sagan Tosu - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:4 ✺
14.07.24	Sagan Tosu - Gamba Osaka	0:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
10.07.24	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama FC	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.07.24	Albirex Niigata - Sagan Tosu	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLLWW
- Urawa Red Diamonds
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
Japan J1 League
20.07.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Consadole Sapporo	3:4 ✺
14.07.24	Kyoto Sanga - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:0 ✺
06.07.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Shonan Bellmare	2:3 ✺
30.06.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Júbilo Iwata	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.04.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sagan Tosu	3:0
01.07.23	Sagan Tosu - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:2
10.05.23	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sagan Tosu	0:2
08.10.22	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sagan Tosu	2:1
13.03.22	Sagan Tosu - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0
14.08.21	Urawa Red Diamonds - Sagan Tosu	2:1
06.03.21	Sagan Tosu - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:0

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