Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 23

Date: 14 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.15
	2.97	3.46	2.18	Watch
	3.13	3.69	2.25
	3.07	3.59	2.24	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.15
	3.12	3.61	2.23	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.33)	3.53 ↑ (3.5)	2.2 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
30.7%

Draw
26.6%

Gamba Osaka
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

26.7%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

26.3%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	31.2%	56.2%

Sagan Tosu - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Tosu will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 3. Kimura S. 32. Sakaiya K. 6. Fukuta A. 23. Kikuchi T. 22. Togashi C. 21. Horigome Y. 13. Yokoyama A. 11. Araujo V.	22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 20. Nakatani S. 2. Fukuoka S. 4. Kurokawa K. 23. Dawhan 16. Suzuki T. 17. Yamashita R. 13. Sakamoto I. 97. Welton 7. Usami T.
Substitutes
5. Kawahara S. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 55. Kiyotake H. 8. Nakahara H. 1. Riera Rodriguez A. (G) 77. Slivka V. 7. Tezuka K.	24. Egawa Y. 25. Ishikawa K. (G) 11. Jebali I. 47. Juan Alano 10. Kurata S. 6. Lavi N. 46. Matsuda R.
Coaches
Kawai K.	Poyatos D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Sakamoto I. ⚽, Yamashita R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Araujo V. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
64', Welton ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
64', Yamashita R. ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
64', Horigome Y. ↓, Tezuka K. ↑,
72', Sakaiya K. ↓, Kim Tae-Hyeon ↑,
72', Kikuchi T. ↓, Kiyotake H. ↑,
81', Sakamoto I. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
81', Usami T. ↓, Matsuda R. ↑,
84', 0 - 2, Jebali I. ⚽, Kurata S. (A),
84', Tezuka K. 🟨,
85', Fukuta A. ↓, Slivka V. ↑,
90+3', Kurokawa K. ↓, Egawa Y. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tosu won 2.

Recent matches Tosu is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gamba Osaka is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tosu could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Gamba Osaka have a series of home games.

Gamba Osaka will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tosu won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 25-30.

Including matches at home between the teams Tosu won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan Emperors Cup
10.07.24	Sagan Tosu - Yokohama FC	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.07.24	Albirex Niigata - Sagan Tosu	3:4 ✺
03.07.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sagan Tosu	0:1 ✺
30.06.24	Sagan Tosu - Kashiwa Reysol	1:4 ✺
26.06.24	Cerezo Osaka - Sagan Tosu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WWWLL
- Gamba Osaka
Japan Emperors Cup
10.07.24	Gamba Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.07.24	Gamba Osaka - Yokohama F. Marinos	4:0 ✺
30.06.24	Gamba Osaka - Machida Zelvia	1:3 ✺
26.06.24	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	0:0 ✺
22.06.24	Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.04.24	Gamba Osaka - Sagan Tosu	2:1
26.08.23	Sagan Tosu - Gamba Osaka	1:1
25.02.23	Gamba Osaka - Sagan Tosu	1:1
03.09.22	Gamba Osaka - Sagan Tosu	0:3
29.05.22	Sagan Tosu - Gamba Osaka	2:1
23.10.21	Gamba Osaka - Sagan Tosu	1:0
14.04.21	Sagan Tosu - Gamba Osaka	0:1

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