Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 33

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tokyo		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4.1	Watch
	1.87	3.7	3.75
	1.88	3.56	3.7	Watch
	1.92	3.9	3.92
	1.94	3.85	3.65	Watch
	1.8	3.75	3.6
	1.9	3.85	3.85	Watch
	1.87	3.65	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.96)	3.73 ↓ (3.74)	3.8 ↑ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokyo
50.1%

Draw
25.2%

Sagan Tosu
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

25.5%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

25.4%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Tokyo - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Users Predictions: Tokyo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Nozawa T. (G) 5. Nagatomo Y. 4. Kimoto Y. 3. Morishige M. 30. Oka T. 10. Higashi K. 8. Ko T. 71. Araki R. 38. Anzai S. 9. Diego Oliveira 33. Tawaratsumida K.	71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 2. Yamazaki K. 20. Kim Tae-Hyeon 21. Horigome Y. 33. Nishiya K. 6. Fukuta A. 8. Nakahara H. 77. Slivka V. 99. Marcelo Ryan 18. Hino S.
Substitutes
22. Endo K. 40. Harakawa R. 13. Hatano G. (G) 2. Nakamura H. 28. Nozawa L. 11. Ogashiwa T. 14. Yamashita K.	14. Fujita N. 4. Imazu Y. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 32. Sakaiya K. 47. Suzuki D. 22. Togashi C. 25. Watanabe R.
Coaches
Cklamovski P.	Kitani K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Harada W. 🟨,
60', Kimoto Y. 🟨,
61', Horigome Y. ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
61', Hino S. ↓, Togashi C. ↑,
65', Kim Tae-Hyeon 🟨,
68', Diego Oliveira ↓, Ogashiwa T. ↑,
68', Higashi K. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,
68', Tawaratsumida K. ↓, Endo K. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Slivka V. ⚽,
82', 1 - 1, Ko T. ⚽,
84', Slivka V. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
84', Fukuta A. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
87', Anzai S. ↓, Nozawa L. ↑,
87', Nagatomo Y. ↓, Nakamura H. ↑,
90+1', Nakahara H. ↓, Imazu Y. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokyo won 3.

Recent matches Tokyo is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tosu has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Tokyo have a series of guest games.

In this match Tokyo is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Tokyo won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 20:29 (average 1:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Tokyo won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:11 (average 1.3:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tokyo
Japan J1 League
28.09.24	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo	1:3 ✺
21.09.24	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo	0:2 ✺
14.09.24	Tokyo - Nagoya Grampus	4:1 ✺
31.08.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tokyo	3:2 ✺
24.08.24	Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWLL
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
28.09.24	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
31.08.24	Sagan Tosu - Shonan Bellmare	1:2 ✺
25.08.24	Vissel Kobe - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
31.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	0:1
Japan J League Cup
22.05.24	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:2 penalties
Japan J1 League
23.09.23	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	3:2
01.04.23	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:0
26.06.22	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	5:0
08.05.22	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	0:1
09.08.21	Sagan Tosu - Tokyo	1:0

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