Match Info

JAPAN: J1 League - Round 35

Date: 3 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball, QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sagan Tosu		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.6	Watch
	5	3.8	1.63
	4.93	3.95	1.61	Watch
	5.36	4.21	1.63
	5.25	4.11	1.62	Watch
	5	4	1.53
	5.29	4.13	1.62	Watch
	5	4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.1 ↑ (4.55)	4.04 ↑ (3.86)	1.61 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sagan Tosu
18.4%

Draw
23.2%

Machida Zelvia
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

24.6%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

26.5%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sagan Tosu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagan Tosu than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sagan Tosu - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Park Il-gyu (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Imazu Y. 3. Kimura S. 28. Maruhashi Y. 6. Fukuta A. 33. Nishiya K. 8. Nakahara H. 77. Slivka V. 47. Suzuki D. 22. Togashi C.	1. Tani K. (G) 26. Hayashi K. 5. Dresevic I. 14. Jang M. 25. Sugioka D. 7. Soma Y. 23. Shirasaki R. 18. Shimoda H. 22. Fujimoto K. 10. Na Sang-Ho 15. Duke M.
Substitutes
70. Jaja 36. Kitajima F. 31. Okamoto M. (G) 32. Sakaiya K. 37. Terayama T. 25. Watanabe R. 2. Yamazaki K.	9. Fujio S. 42. Fukui K. (G) 33. Mochizuki H. 30. Nakashima Y. 90. Oh Se-Hun 8. Sento K. 6. Suzuki J.
Coaches
Kitani K.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Suzuki D. ⚽, Harada W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sugioka D. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
46', Duke M. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
56', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
60', Fukuta A. ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Dresevic I. ⚽,
72', Maruhashi Y. ↓, Kitajima F. ↑,
72', Togashi C. ↓, Jaja ↑,
73', Fujio S. 🟨,
78', Shirasaki R. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
81', Suzuki D. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,
81', Nakahara H. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Terayama T. ⚽,
88', Jang M. ↓, Suzuki J. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

Tosu is Relegated to J2 League

Tosu is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Machida Zelvia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Tosu have a series of guest games.

In this match Machida Zelvia is a favorite.

There will not play in Tosu: Honda F. (Knee Injury) Marcelo Ryan (Red Card)

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Yasui T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Araki S. (Foot Injury) Nakayama Y. (Knee Injury) Shibato K. (Knee Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Tosu won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sagan Tosu
Japan J1 League
19.10.24	Kyoto Sanga - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
05.10.24	Tokyo - Sagan Tosu	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Sagan Tosu - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Tokyo Verdy - Sagan Tosu	2:0 ✺
13.09.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Sagan Tosu	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTLL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
19.10.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	1:4 ✺
30.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Machida Zelvia	2:0 ✺
21.09.24	Machida Zelvia - Consadole Sapporo	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.03.24	Machida Zelvia - Sagan Tosu	3:1

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