Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2024, Friday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
France	DAZN 1, DAZN France, myCANAL
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, Sky Go Germany
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	beIN Sports
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Saint-Étienne		Lille

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.72
	4.9	3.7	1.72
	5.41	3.7	1.74
	5.02	3.72	1.76	Watch
	5.5	3.7	1.67
	4.87	3.66	1.86	Watch
	4.9	3.7	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.08 ↑ (4.72)	3.69 ↑ (3.68)	1.74 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
18.8%

Draw
26%

Lille
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

25.9%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

25.9%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	9.7%	84.7%

Saint Étienne - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: Lille will win (61 of 72 users predict this - 84.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.41% – 93.03%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 1.

Saint-Étienne is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lille is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Saint-Étienne have a series of guest games.

In this match Lille is a favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Briancon A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lille: Bakker M. (Muscle Injury) Bentaleb N. (Illness) Haraldsson H. (Leg Injury) Ismaily (Injury) Mukau N. (Ankle Injury) Umtiti S. (Knee Injury) Zedadka A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lille: Gomes A. (Face Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Saint-Étienne won 6 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 22-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Saint-Étienne won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 1
31.08.24	Brest - Saint-Étienne	4:0 ✺
24.08.24	Saint-Étienne - Le Havre	0:2 ✺
17.08.24	Monaco - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
07.08.24	Getafe - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
31.07.24	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
01.09.24	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.08.24	Slavia Prague - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
24.08.24	Lille - Angers	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.08.24	Lille - Slavia Prague	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.08.24	Reims - Lille	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
11.03.22	Lille - Saint-Étienne	0:0
21.08.21	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:1
16.05.21	Lille - Saint-Étienne	0:0
29.11.20	Saint-Étienne - Lille	1:1
09.05.20	Saint-Étienne - Lille	Canceled
28.08.19	Lille - Saint-Étienne	3:0
10.03.19	Saint-Étienne - Lille	0:1

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