Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Montpellier		Saint-Étienne

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.1
	3.4	3.55	1.98
	3.73	3.77	2
	7.05	4.92	1.38	Watch
	3.49	3.73	1.94	Watch
	3.25	3.45	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (2.99)	3.81 ↑ (3.57)	1.92 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Montpellier
24.4%

Draw
25.4%

Saint-Étienne
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

26.7%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

26.3%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Montpellier's form might have worsened.

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Saint-Étienne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montpellier, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Saint-Étienne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Montpellier - Saint Étienne Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Saint-Étienne will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Saint-Étienne: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Saint-Étienne (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 3. El Hannach N. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 6. Jullien C. 21. Mincarelli L. 44. Chennahi T. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 7. Mbuku N. 11. Savanier T. 18. Pays N. 19. Mendy A.	30. Larsonneur G. (C) 13. Ferreira J. 15. Lamba C. 3. Nade M. 19. Annan E. 28. Miladinovic I. 10. Tardieu F. 5. Jaber M. 20. Boakye A. 9. Stassin L. 22. Davitashvili Z.
Substitutes
37. Da Silva L. 10. Fayad K. 35. Mahboub F. 1. Michel M. (G) 24. Ndiaye J. 14. Orakpo V. 29. Tchato E.	8. Appiah D. 7. Cardona I. 17. Duffus J. 31. El Jamali N. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 29. Moueffek A. 11. Old B.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Horneland E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Stassin L. (A),
23', 0 - 2, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Annan E. (A),
34', Jullien C. 🟨,
34', Annan E. 🟨,
39', Tardieu F. 🟨,
42', Omeragic B. 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
45+4', Chennahi T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Boakye A. ↓, Cardona I. ↑,
46', Lamba C. ↓, Appiah D. ↑,
53', Nade M. 🟨,
76', Mbuku N. ↓, Orakpo V. ↑,
76', El Hannach N. ↓, Tchato E. ↑,
81', Savanier T. 🟨,
83', Davitashvili Z. 🟨,
87', Miladinovic I. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
87', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Old B. ↑,
89', Savanier T. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
89', Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↓, Mahboub F. ↑,
90+4', Stassin L. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

Montpellier has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Saint-Étienne is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Saint-Étienne will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Montpellier: Fayad K. (Leg Injury) Gueguin A. (Inactive) Laporte J. (Red Card) Mouanga Y. (Injury) Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Sishuba A. (Muscle Injury) Tchato E. (Injury)

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Red Card) Ekwah P. (Inactive) Gadegbeku L. (Inactive) N'Guessan D. (International duty)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
27.09.25	Laval - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Montpellier - Boulogne	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Montpellier - Amiens	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLT
- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
27.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Guingamp	2:3 ✺
23.09.25	Amiens - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Saint-Étienne - Reims	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Clermont - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Saint-Étienne - Grenoble	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.04.25	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	0:2
23.11.24	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	1:2
French Ligue 1
05.02.22	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	0:1
12.09.21	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	2:0
02.05.21	Montpellier - Saint-Étienne	1:2
01.11.20	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	0:1

Upcoming Matches