Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lotto Park (Anderlecht) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 4
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 9, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, RTL Play, RTL Plug, VTM 4, VTM GO
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	Disney+
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 17
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Mexico	14:00	FOX One
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport OTT 3
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Singapore	04:00	beIN Connect
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 4
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 13
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 12, Blue Sport 12
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 19
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360, VTV Prime
International	20:00	VIX App


	Saint-Gilloise		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.6	2.35
	3.1	3.6	2.15
	2.98	3.45	2.45
	3.08	3.46	2.42
	3.14	3.52	2.33
	2.9	3.3	2.3
	3.09	3.67	2.3
	3	3.33	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (3.41)	3.49 ↓ (3.71)	2.34 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
31.7%

Draw
27.4%

Atalanta
40.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.4%

26.2%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

27%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint-Gilloise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	8.1%	82.4%

Saint Gilloise - Atalanta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Atalanta (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Atalanta (1.32) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Union SG (2.31) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (61 of 74 users predict this - 82.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.76% – 91.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (33 of 35 users predict this - 94.29%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Union SG (votes: 2 - 4.8%). Atalanta (votes: 38 - 90.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Scherpen K. (G) 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. (C) 26. Sykes R. 27. Patris L. 8. Zorgane A. 6. Van De Perre K. 25. Khalaili A. 10. Ait El Hadj A. 11. Guilherme Smith 30. Florucz R.	57. Sportiello M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 6. Musah Y. 13. Ederson (C) 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 11. Lookman A. 90. Krstovic N.
Substitutes
33. Berradi S. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 7. Fuseini M. 39. Hamoutahar Y. 35. Huygevelde N. 32. Keita S. 48. Leysen F. 22. Niang O. 17. Schoofs R.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 17. De Ketelaere C. 15. De Roon M. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 9. Scamacca G. 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.
Coaches
Hubert D.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Burgess C. 🟨,
28', Samardzic L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Lookman A. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
52', Samardzic L. ↓, De Ketelaere C. ↑,
52', Musah Y. ↓, De Roon M. ↑,
57', Florucz R. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
57', Zorgane A. ↓, Schoofs R. ↑,
61', Krstovic N. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
69', Ahanor H. 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Khalaili A. ⚽, Ait El Hadj A. (A),
74', Kossounou O. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
77', Sykes R. 🟨,
85', Guilherme Smith ↓, Niang O. ↑,
90+2', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Leysen F. ↑,
90+3', Scamacca G. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Lotto Park.

In recent matches, Union SG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atalanta is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Union SG has had a series of away games.

Atalanta could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Union SG: Biondic M. (Inactive) David P. (Yellow Cards) Francois G. (Inactive) Giger M. (Inactive) Pavlic I. (Inactive) Rodriguez K. (Back Injury) Sylla M. (Inactive) Teunckens J. (Inactive) Zeneli B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Bellanova R. (Injury) Raspadori G. (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Royale Union SG: 0.08%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.01.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.01.26	Saint-Gilloise - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
14.01.26	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLWWT
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Atalanta - Parma	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.01.26	Pisa - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Atalanta - Torino	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Bologna - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

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