Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Lotto Park (Anderlecht)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 4
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World	VIX App


	Saint-Gilloise		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.6	2.35
	3.1	3.6	2.15
	2.98	3.45	2.45
	3.08	3.46	2.42
	3.14	3.52	2.33
	2.9	3.3	2.3
	3.09	3.67	2.3
	3	3.33	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (3.41)	3.49 ↓ (3.71)	2.34 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Gilloise
31.7%

Draw
27.4%

Atalanta
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

26.2%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

28.3%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint-Gilloise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	8.1%	82.4%

Saint Gilloise - Atalanta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Atalanta (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Atalanta (1.32) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Union SG (2.31) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (61 of 74 users predict this - 82.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.76% – 91.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (33 of 35 users predict this - 94.29%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Union SG (votes: 2 - 4.8%). Atalanta (votes: 38 - 90.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Scherpen K. (G) 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. (C) 26. Sykes R. 27. Patris L. 8. Zorgane A. 6. Van De Perre K. 25. Khalaili A. 10. Ait El Hadj A. 11. Guilherme Smith 30. Florucz R.	57. Sportiello M. (G) 3. Kossounou O. 4. Hien I. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 6. Musah Y. 13. Ederson (C) 47. Bernasconi L. 10. Samardzic L. 11. Lookman A. 90. Krstovic N.
Substitutes
33. Berradi S. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 7. Fuseini M. 39. Hamoutahar Y. 35. Huygevelde N. 32. Keita S. 48. Leysen F. 22. Niang O. 17. Schoofs R.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 17. De Ketelaere C. 15. De Roon M. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 9. Scamacca G. 7. Sulemana K. 59. Zalewski N.
Coaches
Hubert D.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Burgess C. 🟨,
28', Samardzic L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Lookman A. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
52', Samardzic L. ↓, De Ketelaere C. ↑,
52', Musah Y. ↓, De Roon M. ↑,
57', Florucz R. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
57', Zorgane A. ↓, Schoofs R. ↑,
61', Krstovic N. ↓, Scamacca G. ↑,
69', Ahanor H. 🟨,
70', 1 - 0, Khalaili A. ⚽, Ait El Hadj A. (A),
74', Kossounou O. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
77', Sykes R. 🟨,
85', Guilherme Smith ↓, Niang O. ↑,
90+2', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Leysen F. ↑,
90+3', Scamacca G. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Lotto Park.

In recent matches, Union SG has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atalanta is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Union SG has had a series of away games.

Atalanta could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Union SG: Biondic M. (Inactive) David P. (Yellow Cards) Francois G. (Inactive) Giger M. (Inactive) Pavlic I. (Inactive) Rodriguez K. (Back Injury) Sylla M. (Inactive) Teunckens J. (Inactive) Zeneli B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Bellanova R. (Injury) Raspadori G. (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Royale Union SG: 0.07%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.01.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.01.26	Saint-Gilloise - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
14.01.26	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLWWT
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Atalanta - Parma	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.01.26	Pisa - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Atalanta - Torino	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Bologna - Atalanta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

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