Match Info

Serie A - Round 19

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bologna		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.65	3.5	2.55
	3.05	3.25	2.38	Watch
	3.13	3.3	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3	2.45
	3.18	3.34	2.49
	3.1	3.33	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.69)	3.29 ↓ (3.55)	2.42 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
31.6%

Draw
29%

Atalanta
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

26.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

27.2%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.9%	40.7%	33.3%

Bologna - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Atalanta will win (votes: 9 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 40.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22.2% – 59.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Atalanta (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bologna (2.19) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Atalanta (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 3 - 20%). Atalanta (votes: 6 - 40%). Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ravaglia F. (G) 20. Zortea N. 41. Vitik M. 14. Heggem T. 33. Miranda J. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 8. Freuler R. 7. Orsolini R. 80. Fabbian G. 28. Cambiaghi N. 24. Dallinga T.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 42. Scalvini G. 19. Djimsiti B. 69. Ahanor H. 77. Zappacosta D. 15. De Roon M. (C) 13. Ederson 47. Bernasconi L. 17. De Ketelaere C. 59. Zalewski N. 90. Krstovic N.
Substitutes
16. Casale N. 9. Castro S. 29. De Silvestri L. 30. Dominguez B. 82. Franceschelli M. (G) 2. Holm E. 17. Immobile C. 26. Lucumi J. 22. Lykogiannis C. 6. Moro N. 21. Odgaard J. 25. Pessina M. (G) 4. Pobega T. 11. Rowe J. 77. Sulemana I.	44. Brescianini M. 4. Hien I. 70. Maldini D. 6. Musah Y. 8. Pasalic M. 31. Rossi F. (G) 10. Samardzic L. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 7. Sulemana K.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Krstovic N. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Orsolini R. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
60', Dallinga T. ↓, Immobile C. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Krstovic N. ⚽, De Roon M. (A),
68', Scalvini G. ↓, Hien I. ↑,
68', Zalewski N. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
72', Fabbian G. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
72', Freuler R. ↓, Moro N. ↑,
77', Ederson ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
77', Krstovic N. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
80', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Dominguez B. ↑,
84', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
88', Palladino R. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 3.

Bologna is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atalanta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Bologna may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atalanta has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bologna: Bernardeschi F. (Injury) Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Skorupski L. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: Bakker M. (Knee Injury) Bellanova R. (Injury) Kolasinac S. (Knee Injury) Kossounou O. (International duty) Lookman A. (International duty)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bologna won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:31. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bologna won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Atalanta: 0.79% Bologna: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
04.01.26	Inter Milan - Bologna	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Bologna - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
Italian Super Cup
22.12.25	Napoli - Bologna	2:0 ✺
19.12.25	Bologna - Inter Milan	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
14.12.25	Bologna - Juventus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTLWL
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
03.01.26	Atalanta - Roma	1:0 ✺
28.12.25	Atalanta - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Genoa - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Atalanta - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
13.04.25	Atalanta - Bologna	2:0
Coppa Italia
04.02.25	Atalanta - Bologna	0:1
Italian Serie A
28.09.24	Bologna - Atalanta	1:1
03.03.24	Atalanta - Bologna	1:2
23.12.23	Bologna - Atalanta	1:0
08.04.23	Atalanta - Bologna	0:2
09.01.23	Bologna - Atalanta	1:2

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