Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 33

Date: 21 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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France	beIN Sports Max
Hungary	Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Salernitana		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.6	Watch
	5.25	4	1.63
	5.4	4.15	1.6	Watch
	5.7	4.17	1.65
	5.54	4.16	1.64
	5	4.2	1.6
	5.68	4.07	1.64	Watch
	5.3	4.05	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.45 ↑ (4.99)	4.1 ↑ (4.1)	1.62 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
17.6%

Draw
23.4%

Fiorentina
59.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

23.2%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

21.6%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fiorentina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.4%	11.1%	69.4%

Salernitana - Fiorentina Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Salernitana will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 25 - 73.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 58.7% – 88.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ochoa G. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 17. Fazio F. (C) 98. Pirola L. 6. Sambia J. 99. Legowski M. 26. Basic T. 3. Bradaric D. 33. Tchaouna L. 87. Candreva A. 22. Ikwuemesi C.	1. Terracciano P. (G) 33. Kayode M. 28. Martinez Quarta L. (C) 16. Ranieri L. 65. Parisi F. 32. Duncan A. 8. Lopez M. 11. Ikone J. 17. Castrovilli G. 7. Sottil R. 72. Barak A.
Substitutes
62. Allocca P. (G) 56. Costil B. (G) 11. Gomis I. 7. Martegani A. 4. Pasalidis T. 24. Pellegrino M. 36. Sfait A. 9. Simy 55. Vignato E. 14. Weissman S. 59. Zanoli A.	6. Arthur Melo 50. Biagetti C. 3. Biraghi C. 51. Caprini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 2. Dodo 22. Faraoni D. 19. Infantino G. 99. Kouame C. 38. Mandragora R. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 4. Milenkovic N. 52. Sene F.
Coaches
Colantuono S.	Italiano V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Lopez M. 🟨,
45', Basic T. 🟨,
45', Sottil R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Ranieri L. 🟨,
61', Candreva A. 🟨,
63', Pirola L. ↓, Pellegrino M. ↑,
68', Candreva A. ↓, Martegani A. ↑,
68', Ikwuemesi C. ↓, Weissman S. ↑,
70', Castrovilli G. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
70', Lopez M. ↓, Arthur Melo ↑,
77', Martinez Quarta L. 🟨,
80', 0 - 1, Kouame C. ⚽, Ranieri L. (A),
82', Kayode M. ↓, Faraoni D. ↑,
82', Duncan A. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
84', Sambia J. ↓, Zanoli A. ↑,
84', Basic T. ↓, Simy ↑,
87', Barak A. ↓, Milenkovic N. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 2, Ikone J. ⚽, Mandragora R. (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 10).

Salernitana has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Fiorentina is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fiorentina could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie A
12.04.24	Lazio - Salernitana	4:1 ✺
05.04.24	Salernitana - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
01.04.24	Bologna - Salernitana	3:0 ✺
16.03.24	Salernitana - Lecce	0:1 ✺
09.03.24	Cagliari - Salernitana	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Fiorentina - Viktoria Plzeň	2:0 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
15.04.24	Fiorentina - Genoa	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.04.24	Viktoria Plzeň - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
07.04.24	Juventus - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.04.24	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.12.23	Fiorentina - Salernitana	3:0
03.05.23	Salernitana - Fiorentina	3:3
09.11.22	Fiorentina - Salernitana	2:1
24.04.22	Salernitana - Fiorentina	2:1
11.12.21	Fiorentina - Salernitana	4:0

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