Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 29

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Hungary	Sport 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Salernitana		Lecce

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.25
	2.88	3.25	2.52	Watch
	3.45	3.24	2.35
	3.39	3.23	2.33
	3.25	3.2	2.25
	3.37	3.37	2.37	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.67)	3.24 ↑ (3.23)	2.33 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
29.1%

Draw
29.6%

Lecce
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29.4%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

31.1%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Salernitana's form might have worsened.

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lecce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	23.8%	42.9%

Salernitana - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Salernitana will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Lecce will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lecce: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
56. Costil B. (G) 23. Gyomber N. 44. Manolas K. 98. Pirola L. 3. Bradaric D. 18. Coulibaly L. 25. Maggiore G. 26. Basic T. 87. Candreva A. (C) 33. Tchaouna L. 14. Weissman S.	30. Falcone W. (G) 17. Gendrey V. 5. Pongracic M. 6. Baschirotto F. 25. Gallo A. 29. Blin A. (C) 20. Ramadani Y. 10. Oudin R. 7. Almqvist P. 9. Krstovic N. 91. Piccoli R.
Substitutes
62. Allocca P. (G) 5. Boateng J. 17. Fazio F. 11. Gomis I. 22. Ikwuemesi C. 99. Legowski M. 7. Martegani A. 13. Ochoa G. (G) 4. Pasalidis T. 24. Pellegrino M. 6. Sambia J. 36. Sfait A. 9. Simy 55. Vignato E. 59. Zanoli A.	18. Berisha M. 21. Brancolini F. (G) 13. Dorgu P. 16. Gonzalez J. 50. Pierotti S. 8. Rafia H. 40. Samooja J. (G) 11. Sansone N. 59. Touba A. 12. Venuti L.
Coaches
Liverani F.	Gotti L.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 1.

Both teams have a series of defeats in the last matches.

Lecce will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Salernitana: Boateng J. (Injury) Gyomber N. (Injury) Kastanos G. (Yellow Cards) Pierozzi N. (Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Banda L. (Yellow Cards) Brancolini F. (Injury) Dermaku K. (Injury) Kaba M. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Salernitana won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie A
09.03.24	Cagliari - Salernitana	4:2 ✺
02.03.24	Udinese - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
24.02.24	Salernitana - Monza	0:2 ✺
16.02.24	Inter Milan - Salernitana	4:0 ✺
09.02.24	Salernitana - Empoli	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
10.03.24	Lecce - Verona	0:1 ✺
03.03.24	Frosinone - Lecce	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Lecce - Inter Milan	0:4 ✺
16.02.24	Torino - Lecce	2:0 ✺
11.02.24	Bologna - Lecce	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.09.23	Lecce - Salernitana	2:0
27.01.23	Lecce - Salernitana	1:2
16.09.22	Salernitana - Lecce	1:2
Italian Serie B
02.04.21	Lecce - Salernitana	2:0
15.12.20	Salernitana - Lecce	1:1
Coppa Italia
18.08.19	Lecce - Salernitana	4:0
Italian Serie B
26.01.19	Salernitana - Lecce	1:2

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