Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Ghersini D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Salernitana		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	3	Watch
	2.55	3	2.9
	2.5	2.95	3	Watch
	2.61	3.02	3.22
	2.55	2.97	3.11	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.6
	2.53	3.1	2.99	Watch
	2.5	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.68)	3.02 ↓ (3.19)	2.98 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
37.1%

Draw
31.2%

Spezia
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.5%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

30.5%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	47.1%	29.4%

Salernitana - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Salernitana will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Spezia will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Sepe L. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 33. Ferrari G. M. 15. Bronn D. 17. Njoh L. 21. Soriano R. 25. Maggiore G. 70. Tello A. 31. Verde D. 9. Simy 24. Braaf J.	66. Gori S. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 37. Mateju A. 55. Hristov P. 32. Vignali L. 25. Bandinelli F. 5. Esposito Sa. 7. Elia S. 20. Di Serio G. 27. Soleri E. 13. Reca A.
Substitutes
12. Corriere F. (G) 1. Fiorillo V. (G) 2. Gentile D. 29. Ghiglione P. 44. Jaroszynski P. 11. Kallon Y. 13. Ruggeri F. 77. Sfait A. 7. Tongya F. 10. Torregrossa E. 4. Velthuis T. 20. Wlodarczyk S.	44. Benvenuto M. 77. Bertola N. 36. Candelari P. 29. Cassata F. 17. Colak A. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 9. Esposito F. 11. Falcinelli D. 4. Ferrer S. 65. Giorgeschi S. 12. Mascardi D. (G) 8. Nagy A.
Coaches
Martusciello G.	D'Angelo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Stojanovic P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Braaf J. ↓, Tongya F. ↑,
54', Tello A. 🟨,
55', Maggiore G. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Soleri E. ⚽,
61', Soriano R. ↓, Kallon Y. ↑,
71', Soleri E. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
71', Reca A. ↓, Bertola N. ↑,
72', Tello A. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
72', Stojanovic P. ↓, Sfait A. ↑,
73', Elia S. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
73', 0 - 2, Bertola N. ⚽,
75', Verde D. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
85', Di Serio G. ↓, Falcinelli D. ↑,
88', Bandinelli F. ↓, Degli Innocenti D. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 2.

Recent matches Salernitana is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Spezia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Spezia: Aurelio G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Crespi G. M. (Tendon Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Salernitana won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 18:25 (average 1.1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Salernitana won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:9 (average 1.5:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie B
06.10.24	Palermo - Salernitana	0:1 ✺
29.09.24	Salernitana - Catanzaro	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
25.09.24	Udinese - Salernitana	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
21.09.24	Reggiana - Salernitana	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Salernitana - Pisa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTLTL
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.10.24	Spezia - Reggiana	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Sassuolo - Spezia	0:0 ✺
22.09.24	Spezia - Carrarese	4:2 ✺
14.09.24	Cremonese - Spezia	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Spezia - Cesena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
12.08.24	Salernitana - Spezia	4:3 penalties
Italian Serie A
02.04.23	Spezia - Salernitana	1:1
22.10.22	Salernitana - Spezia	1:0
07.02.22	Salernitana - Spezia	2:2
16.10.21	Spezia - Salernitana	2:1
Italian Serie B
31.07.20	Salernitana - Spezia	1:2
29.12.19	Spezia - Salernitana	2:1

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