Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV


	Vasco da Gama		Volta Redonda

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.35	7.1
	1.4	4.43	7.68
	1.4	4.52	7.41	Watch
	1.36	3.9	7
	1.37	4.15	7.8
	1.44	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.43)	4.31 ↑ (3.98)	7.33 ↑ (7.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
66%

Draw
21.4%

Volta Redonda
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

23%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

22.3%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Volta Redonda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes 17. Moreira N. 10. Coutinho (C) 11. Andres Gomez 20. Brenner	1. Avelino (G) 8. Dener 14. Rafael Castro 3. Lucas Adell 6. Jean Victor 5. Bruno Barra (C) 21. Henrique Silva 17. Wagninho 18. Luciano Naninho 11. MV 9. Ygor Catatau
Substitutes
28. Adson 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 25. Hugo Moura 60. Joao Vitor 9. Matheus Franca 96. Paulo Henrique 29. Rojas J. 4. Saldivia A. 77. Spinelli C. 3. Tche Tche	13. Alan 19. Blanco O. 29. Caetano 26. Caio Silva 45. Deivity (G) 28. Joao Valenca 22. Juninho Monteiro 30. Juninho Ramos 20. Kaua Uba 7. Marquinhos 27. Mizael Monteiro 25. Vitor Parana
Coaches
Diniz F.	Rodrigo Santana

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Ygor Catatau ⚽, Jean Victor (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Coutinho ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
46', Cauan Barros ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
46', Lucas Piton ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
54', Tche Tche 🟨,
56', Luciano Naninho ↓, Joao Valenca ↑,
65', Moreira N. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽, Cuesta C. (A),
68', Dener ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
71', Joao Valenca 🟨,
73', Jean Victor ↓, Caetano ↑,
74', Henrique Silva ↓, Juninho Monteiro ↑,
74', MV ↓, Juninho Ramos ↑,
79', Brenner ↓, David ↑,
82', Avelino 🟨,
87', Mizael Monteiro 🟨,
90+7', Ygor Catatau 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Rojas J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Marquinhos (Penalty Awarded),
2, Tche Tche (Penalty Awarded),
2, Lucas Adell (Penalty Awarded),
3, Spinelli C. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Wagninho (Penalty Awarded),
4, David (Penalty Awarded),
4, Rafael Castro (Penalty Awarded),
5, Rodriguez J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Volta Redonda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vasco is considered a favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:15. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:10. (average 2.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.12%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.02.26	Madureira - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWTTL
- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Volta Redonda - Madureira	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Maricá - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
26.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Volta Redonda	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Volta Redonda - Flamengo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:2
24.02.24	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:1
30.01.23	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	1:2
26.01.22	Volta Redonda - Vasco da Gama	2:4
06.03.21	Volta Redonda - Vasco da Gama	1:0
08.03.20	Volta Redonda - Vasco da Gama	0:0
23.01.19	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	5:2

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