Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 6

Date: 29 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: CT Joao Saldanha (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Rufino W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
South-africa	SuperSport PSL
Usa	Fanatiz


	Maricá		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	7.75	4.4	1.41
	8.5	4.33	1.38	Watch
	7	4.25	1.38
	7.56	4.14	1.4	Watch
	8.5	4	1.36
	7.1	4.06	1.46	Watch
	8.5	4.33	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.84 ↑ (6.25)	4.22 ↑ (3.9)	1.4 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maricá
11.8%

Draw
21.9%

Vasco da Gama
66.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.9%

23.9%

61.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.7%

28%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maricá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vasco da Gama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Maricá - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gerson Dida (G) 2. Magno 3. Mizael Monteiro 4. Carvalho F. 6. Joao Victor 8. Joao Vitor 5. Ramon 7. Clayton 10. Walber 11. Bruninho 9. Sergio Mendonca	1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 43. Lucas Freitas 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis 26. Dominguez M. 85. Mateus Carvalho 25. Hugo Moura 10. Payet D. 21. Jean David 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
13. Almir Silva 15. Clisman 17. Gutemberg 16. Heltton 18. Hugo Borges 12. Leandro (G) 21. Magno 14. Marcelinho 19. Mercado K. 23. Roskopf M. 20. Tavares J. 22. Yuri Duarte (G)	16. Alegria 72. Bruno Lopes 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 70. Euder 6. Lucas Piton 44. Luiz Gustavo 30. Lukas Zuccarello 33. Lyncon 96. Paulo Henrique 40. Phillipe Gabriel (G) 20. Sforza J. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Reinaldo	Fabio Carille

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Mizael Monteiro 🟨,
64', Victor Luis ↓, Lucas Piton ↑,
64', Rodriguez J. ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
64', Dominguez M. ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
69', Sergio Mendonca ↓, Mercado K. ↑,
69', Clayton ↓, Gutemberg ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Paulo Henrique ⚽, Tche Tche (A),
72', Jean David ↓, Lukas Zuccarello ↑,
74', Bruninho ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
74', Mizael Monteiro ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
74', Joao Vitor ↓, Hugo Borges ↑,
82', Joao Victor 🟨,
90+3', Mateus Carvalho ↓, Sforza J. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match Vasco is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maricá FC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.01.25	Maricá - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:2 ✺
22.01.25	Maricá - Nova Iguaçu	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Fluminense - Maricá	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Maricá - Boavista	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Maricá	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 TWTWW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Portuguesa RJ	4:1 ✺
23.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
16.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Bangu	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWTTT

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