Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+


	San Antonio		El Nacional

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.58	4.51	4.69
	1.58	4.71	4.43	Watch
	1.57	3.75	4.8
	1.61	4.29	4.71	Watch
	1.49	3.75	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.49)	4.13 ↑ (3.75)	4.86 ↓ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Antonio
58.7%

Draw
22.3%

El Nacional
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

24%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

18.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Antonio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Antonio than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Antonio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

San Antonio - El Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
69', 1 - 0, Chala J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

San Antonio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

El Nacional has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

El Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, San Antonio is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	San Antonio	28	7	12	9	26:32	-6	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Antonio Ibarra FC
Ecuadorian Copa
21.05.26	San Antonio - SD Aucas	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
16.05.26	Gualaceo - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
07.05.26	San Antonio - Vinotinto	1:1 ✺
28.04.26	San Antonio - Atlético Rojiblanco	1:1 ✺
24.04.26	Deportivo Santo Domingo - San Antonio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTTTL
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Serie B
17.05.26	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	El Nacional - 22 de Julio	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Gualaceo - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	El Nacional - Vinotinto	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Cumbayá - El Nacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL

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