Match Info

Primera Division - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez (Ciudad Quesada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Costa-rica	TDMAX, Tigo Sports


	San Carlos		Alajuelense

	1	X	2
	3.8	2.75	2.05
	3.65	2.98	2.08	Watch
	4.3	2.99	2.08
	4.02	3.13	2.02	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.05
	4.06	2.79	2.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↓ (4.24)	2.92 ↓ (3.04)	2.05 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Carlos
23.7%

Draw
31.4%

Alajuelense
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

30.7%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.1%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Carlos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Alajuelense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Carlos than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

San Carlos - Alajuelense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Carlos will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Alajuelense will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez M. (G) 4. Fonseca P. 22. Aguero J. 92. Cordoba K. 5. Martinez C. 10. Cerdas K. 11. Cordoba R. (C) 30. Masis D. 21. Venegas J. 18. Aguilar J. 38. Gomez K.	23. Ortega Olivera W. J. (G) 13. Gamboa A. 22. Matarrita R. 26. Pinar F. 25. van der Putten S. 5. Borges C. (C) 14. Bran Flores A. J. 7. Hernandez A. 8. Pilone M. 18. Cisneros R. 11. Vargas K.
Substitutes
15. Carmona A. 16. Castillo G. 17. Evans J. 31. Hernandez E. 19. McDonald J. 41. Pilarte J. 20. Rivera R. 26. Rojas O. 12. Sanchez D. 35. Zuniga K. (G)	29. Aguilar D. 27. Alvarado J. 36. Badilla I. 10. Campbell J. 1. Mora B. (G) 35. Parkins R. 2. Paz D. 3. Quesada E. 24. Salazar A. 9. Zaldivar A.
Coaches
Centeno W.	Ramirez O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Pilone M. ↓, Parkins R. ↑,
39', Vargas K. ↓, Badilla I. ↑,
45+3', 0 - 1, Borges C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Borges C. ↓, Salazar A. ↑,
46', Fonseca P. ↓, Rojas O. ↑,
46', Masis D. ↓, Castillo G. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Hernandez A. ⚽,
71', Bran Flores A. J. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
71', Cisneros R. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
75', Gomez K. ↓, McDonald J. ↑,
86', Aguilar J. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
86', Martinez C. ↓, Carmona A. ↑,
90+3', Zaldivar A. 🟨,
90+5', Parkins R. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Carlos won 0.

San Carlos has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alajuelense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alajuelense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alajuelense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, San Carlos won 0 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 13:30. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, San Carlos won 0 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	San Carlos	9	5	0	4	8:9	-1	15
5	Alajuelense	9	4	2	3	15:10	5	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD San Carlos
Costa Rican Primera Division
04.03.26	Puntarenas FC - San Carlos	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	San Carlos - Cartagines	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	San Carlos - Herediano	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Guadalupe - San Carlos	3:4 ✺
08.02.26	Deportivo Saprissa - San Carlos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TTWWL
- LD Alajuelense
Costa Rican Primera Division
03.03.26	Alajuelense - Cartagines	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Puntarenas FC - Alajuelense	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Deportivo Saprissa - Alajuelense	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Alajuelense - Sporting San José	1:2 ✺
Costa Rican Copa
10.02.26	Municipal Liberia - Alajuelense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Costa Rican Primera Division
24.01.26	Alajuelense - San Carlos	1:0
06.12.25	San Carlos - Alajuelense	0:2
16.09.25	Alajuelense - San Carlos	2:0
27.03.25	Alajuelense - San Carlos	0:0
29.01.25	San Carlos - Alajuelense	0:0
26.10.24	Alajuelense - San Carlos	3:1
24.08.24	San Carlos - Alajuelense	0:0

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