Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 10 June 2023, Saturday

Location: PayPal Park (San Jose)

Referee: Saghafi N. (Usa)


	San Jose Earthquakes		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.45
	2.8	3.4	2.45
	3.13	3.45	2.39
	2.6	3.25	2.3	Watch
	2.88	3.52	2.35	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (1.99)	3.4 ↓ (3.67)	2.38 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Jose Earthquakes
32.9%

Draw
27.6%

Philadelphia Union
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

25.6%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

26.3%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Jose Earthquakes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Jose Earthquakes's form might have worsened.

Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Philadelphia Union's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (+15.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Jose Earthquakes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	31.6%	52.6%

San Jose Earthquakes - Philadelphia Union Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. San Jose will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philadelphia: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Daniel (G) 29. Akapo C. 26. Rodrigues 15. Beason T. 21. Trauco M. 14. Yueill J. (C) 7. Gruezo C. 35. Monteiro J. 10. Espinoza C. 11. Ebobisse J. 44. Cowell C.	18. Blake A. (C) 5. Glesnes J. 3. Elliott J. 17. Lowe D. 26. Harriel N. 20. Bueno J. 31. Flach L. 27. Wagner K. 10. Gazdag D. 9. Carranza J. 7. Uhre M.
Substitutes
55. Baldisimo M. 25. Bouda O. 93. Judson 28. Kikanovic B. 1. Marcinkowski J. (G) 3. Marie P. 4. Mensah J. 22. Thompson T. 30. Tsakiris N.	12. Bendik J. (G) 34. Craig B. 25. Donovan C. 16. McGlynn J. 6. Perea A. 14. Rafanello J. 2. Real M. 33. Sullivan Q. 19. Torres J.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Curtin J.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

San Jose has the most likely position - 4 (11.37%), project points - 47, currently - 23, a good chance of playoffs (81%), a very small chance of supporters shield (<1%), a very small chance of win league (2%).

Philadelphia has the most likely position - 2 (25.4%), project points - 59, currently - 30, a very good chance of playoffs (98%), a small chance of supporters shield (12%), a small chance of win league (13%).

This event has quality 45, small importance 14, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches San Jose won 0.

Recent matches San Jose is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Philadelphia is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently San Jose have a series of guest games.

Recently Philadelphia have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in San Jose: Nathan (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Philadelphia: Bedoya A. (Muscle Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches San Jose won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-14.

Including matches at home between the teams San Jose won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
03.06.23	Colorado Rapids - San Jose Earthquakes	0:0 ✺
31.05.23	Seattle Sounders - San Jose Earthquakes	0:1 ✺
27.05.23	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	1:1 ✺
20.05.23	Los Angeles - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1 ✺
14.05.23	Los Angeles Galaxy - San Jose Earthquakes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWTLL
- Philadelphia Union
MLS
03.06.23	Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal	3:0 ✺
31.05.23	Philadelphia Union - Charlotte	1:0 ✺
27.05.23	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:3 ✺
20.05.23	Philadelphia Union - New England Revolution	3:0 ✺
17.05.23	Philadelphia Union - DC United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

MLS
12.03.22	Philadelphia Union - San Jose Earthquakes	2:0
25.09.19	San Jose Earthquakes - Philadelphia Union	1:2
07.04.18	Philadelphia Union - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1
19.08.17	San Jose Earthquakes - Philadelphia Union	2:2
30.04.16	Philadelphia Union - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1
05.09.15	San Jose Earthquakes - Philadelphia Union	1:2
24.08.14	Philadelphia Union - San Jose Earthquakes	4:2

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