Match Info

MLS

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)

Referee: Dujic F. (Can)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Seattle Sounders		San Jose Earthquakes

	1	X	2
	1.76	4.1	4	Watch
	1.82	4.15	3.95	Watch
	1.83	4.22	4.09
	1.8	4.16	3.88	Watch
	1.75	3.8	3.75
	1.85	4.11	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.1)	4.09 ↑ (3.7)	3.95 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Seattle Sounders
52.7%

Draw
23.2%

San Jose Earthquakes
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25.5%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

26.5%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Seattle Sounders has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Seattle Sounders's performance.

San Jose Earthquakes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Jose Earthquakes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Seattle Sounders than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Seattle Sounders that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	16.7%	25%

Seattle Sounders - San Jose Earthquakes Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Seattle will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). San Jose will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Seattle: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. San Jose (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - San Jose (2.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - San Jose (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - San Jose (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. San Jose (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thomas A. (G) 85. Kossa-Rienzi K. 16. Roldan A. 25. Ragen J. 5. Nouhou 7. Roldan C. (C) 37. Brunell S. 9. Ferreira J. 11. Rusnak A. 14. Rothrock P. 19. Musovski D.	42. Daniel (G) 17. Jasinski J. 25. Floriani M. 18. Roberts R. 4. Romney D. 40. Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. 21. Buck N. 16. Skahan J. 20. Fernandez N. 3. Marie P. (C) 32. Adimabua N.
Substitutes
17. Arriola P. 95. De Rosario O. 31. Dotson H. 24. Frei S. (G) 90. Gomez S. 20. Kim Kee-Hee 45. Kingston P. 35. Lopez A. 13. Morris J.	7. Bouda O. 22. Crockford N. (G) 6. Harkes I. 19. Judd P. 28. Kikanovic B. 34. Leroux B. 5. Munie D. 2. Ricketts J. 14. Vieira R.
Coaches
Schmetzer B.	Arena B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Fernandez N. ⚽, Adimabua N. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Rusnak A. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', Roberts R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Marie P. ↓, Bouda O. ↑,
46', Adimabua N. ↓, Judd P. ↑,
55', 2 - 1, Ferreira J. ⚽,
58', Judd P. 🟨,
64', Buck N. ↓, Leroux B. ↑,
64', Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. ↓, Harkes I. ↑,
68', Musovski D. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
68', Brunell S. ↓, Dotson H. ↑,
68', Skahan J. ↓, Ricketts J. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Judd P. ⚽,
75', Rusnak A. ↓, De Rosario O. ↑,
75', Kossa-Rienzi K. ↓, Kingston P. ↑,
82', Rothrock P. ↓, Arriola P. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, De Rosario O. ⚽, Nouhou (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Recently, Seattle has had a series of home games.

Seattle is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 36:27. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Seattle won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 2.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Seattle Sounders FC
MLS
09.05.26	Seattle Sounders - San Diego	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Sporting Kansas City - Seattle Sounders	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Seattle Sounders - FC Dallas	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Seattle Sounders - St. Louis City	4:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
15.04.26	Seattle Sounders - Tigres UANL	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWWW
- San Jose Earthquakes
MLS
09.05.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Vancouver Whitecaps	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
28.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	4:2 ✺
MLS
25.04.26	St. Louis City - San Jose Earthquakes	2:3 ✺
22.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Austin FC	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
15.03.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Seattle Sounders	0:1
19.07.25	Seattle Sounders - San Jose Earthquakes	3:2
29.03.25	San Jose Earthquakes - Seattle Sounders	1:1
18.09.24	Seattle Sounders - San Jose Earthquakes	2:2
23.03.24	San Jose Earthquakes - Seattle Sounders	3:2
12.07.23	San Jose Earthquakes - Seattle Sounders	2:0
31.05.23	Seattle Sounders - San Jose Earthquakes	0:1

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