The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
San Marcos de Arica 57.6%
Draw 24.9%
Deportes Puerto Montt 17.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
49.9%
27.6%
22.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
52%
26.4%
21.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Marcos de Arica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Marcos de Arica's performance.
Deportes Puerto Montt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Marcos de Arica that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Puerto Montt than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Puerto Montt Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Tapia B. (G) 5. Rivera J. 8. Barrios A. 15. Cubillos G. 34. Barboza A. 19. Maidana A. 26. Rencoret C. (C) 27. Orrego I. 22. Donadell N. 16. Reyes G. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C.
13. Ureta L. (G) 2. Morales A. 4. Riveros M. 6. Diaz D. 15. Egana K. 14. Cardenas J. 16. Flores J. 18. Sabella A. 23. Castillo G. 9. Vazquez L. 34. Gonzalez K.
Substitutes
20. Abalos A. 2. Campos R. 14. Guerra C. 24. Pereira D. 10. Sagredo B. 1. Saracho R. (G) 11. Zedan N.
29. Collao G. (G) 21. Espinoza F. 24. Gonzalez J. 22. Jaime J. 26. Mancilla N. 17. Nieto B. 19. Taiva B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Diaz D. 🟨,
57', Flores J. 🟨,
60', Vazquez L. ↓, Taiva B. ↑,
60', Diaz D. ↓, Espinoza F. ↑,
64', Maidana A. ↓, Sagredo B. ↑,
64', Barrios A. ↓, Guerra C. ↑,
76', Barboza A. 🟨,
77', Gonzalez K. ↓, Nieto B. ↑,
77', Flores J. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
79', Cubillos G. ↓, Campos R. ↑,
79', Orrego I. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
79', Donadell N. ↓, Abalos A. ↑,
83', Rivera J. 🟨,
86', Castillo G. 🟨,
87', 🟨,
87', Sabella A. ↓, Mancilla N. ↑,
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Liga de Primera (Promotion - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 12th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica won 2.
In recent outings, San Marcos de Arica has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Puerto Montt has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
In this matchup, San Marcos de Arica is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, San Marcos de Arica has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:14 (averaging 0.9:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for San Marcos de Arica against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1:0.8 per game).