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Current Win Probability
San Martín de Burzaco 38.2%
Draw 32.7%
Deportivo Merlo 29.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33%
31%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.5%
30.5%
36.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Martín de Burzaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Martín de Burzaco's performance.
Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Merlo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Burzaco than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Martín de Burzaco that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+7.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Merlo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
San Martín de Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gagliardo M. (G) 5. Denis K. 10. Diaz R. 4. Gonzalez R. 6. Lazarev R. 8. Modon S. 2. Orellana D. 3. Siliman A. 11. Treppo E. 7. Velazquez R. 9. Zagert E.
1. Figueroa T. (G) 8. Aguerre F. 10. Cabrera D. 2. Figueredo L. 11. Maguicha D. 3. Miguez L. 5. Ojeda G. 7. Quinteros E. 9. Sandoval I. 6. Sineiro C. 4. Vallejo L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
25', (Penalty Awarded),
25', 1 - 0, Chavez B. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Sandoval I. ⚽,
45+3', Aguerre F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Cabrera D. ↓, Maguicha D. ↑,
58', Ojeda G. ↓, Quinteros E. ↑,
61', Denis K. 🟨,
62', Denis K. ↓, Peralta R. ↑,
72', Benitez F. 🟨,
72', 🟨,
76', Vallejo L. 🟨,
77', Treppo E. ↓, Gauna N. A. ↑,
80', Vallejo L. ↓, Barrientos L. ↑,
85', Modon S. ↓, Funes A. ↑,
85', Modon S. ↓, Funes A. ↑,
90', Miguez L. 🟨,
90+2', Quinteros E. 🟨,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SM de Burzaco won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, SM de Burzaco won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, SM de Burzaco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.8:2).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
San Martin Burzaco
38
12
14
12
39:41
-2
50
15
Dep. Merlo
38
10
14
14
36:51
-15
44
Last Results with these Odds
San Martín de Burzaco - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.04%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 35.98%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Usa
Watch
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