Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Municipal de Marco de Canaveses (Marco de Canaveses)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Marco 09		Sanjoanense

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.4	4
	1.78	3.3	4.05
	1.78	3.53	4.74
	1.77	3.51	4.47	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.4
	1.75	3.38	4.29
	1.62	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.65)	3.39 ↓ (3.59)	4.42 ↓ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco 09
52.5%

Draw
26.9%

Sanjoanense
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

25.7%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

23.1%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Sanjoanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Sanjoanense aligns with the current prediction.

Marco 09 - Sanjoanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Ze Couto (G) 10. Duarte D. 79. Erivaldo 27. Guimaraes B. 5. Nandinho 6. Pacheco F. 3. Pedro M. (C) 7. Pedro P. 88. Silva D. 33. Silva J. 2. Sousa B.	1. Monteiro J. (G) 16. Gomes V. 27. John K. 10. Kiko Felix 2. Martins J. 13. Pinheiro Edu 8. Podstawski T. 5. Santos R. 6. Serra A. 30. Talles Wander 12. Vitinha (C)
Substitutes
99. Carvalho D. (G) 14. Doukoure H. 23. Garro L. 53. Matos T. 11. Mauro Ribeiro 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 9. Soares P. 95. Sousa V.	19. Cezar F. 25. Couto J. 36. Duarte A. (G) 21. Gomes R. 24. Maio F. 3. Nando 57. Robalinho T. 7. Rocha T. 33. Sa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Pacheco F. 🟨,
30', Nandinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Silva J. 🟨,
66', Silva D. ↓, Mauro Ribeiro ↑,
71', Kiko Felix ↓, Rocha T. ↑,
73', Erivaldo ↓, Soares P. ↑,
74', Nandinho ↓, Pedrosa C. ↑,
77', Pinheiro Edu ↓, Couto J. ↑,
81', Pacheco F. ↓, Doukoure H. ↑,
81', Guimaraes B. ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
83', Serra A. 🟨,
85', Martins J. ↓, Maio F. ↑,
85', Podstawski T. ↓, Cezar F. ↑,
85', Santos R. ↓, Nando ↑,
90+3', Pedro M. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Marco have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sanjoanense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Marco is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Marco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Fafe - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWLL
- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.26	Sanjoanense - Braga B	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Fafe - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1
29.11.25	Marco 09 - Sanjoanense	2:1
16.08.25	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	0:0

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