Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Conde Dias Garcia (São João da Madeira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sanjoanense		Marco 09

	1	X	2
	2.78	3.05	2.35
	3	3.27	2.44
	2.9	3.24	2.4	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.86	3.33	2.39
	2.85	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (2.89)	3.17 ↑ (3.09)	2.4 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanjoanense
32.3%

Draw
29.2%

Marco 09
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.5%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.6%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanjoanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Marco 09 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Sanjoanense - Marco 09 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Monteiro J. (G) 16. Gomes V. 27. John K. 10. Kiko Felix 2. Martins J. 13. Pinheiro Edu (C) 8. Podstawski T. 5. Santos R. 6. Serra A. 30. Talles Wander 12. Vitinha	26. Ze Couto (G) 10. Duarte D. 79. Erivaldo 11. Mauro Ribeiro 5. Nandinho 6. Pacheco F. 3. Pedro M. (C) 88. Silva D. 33. Silva J. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B.
Substitutes
20. Andrezinho 19. Cezar F. 25. Couto J. 36. Duarte A. (G) 21. Gomes R. 24. Maio F. 3. Nando 7. Rocha T. 33. Sa G.	99. Carvalho D. (G) 14. Doukoure H. 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 53. Matos T. 7. Pedro P. 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 95. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Pacheco F. ⚽, Sousa B. (A),
42', 1 - 1, Serra A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Kiko Felix 🟨,
55', 🟨,
59', Kiko Felix ↓, Rocha T. ↑,
60', Erivaldo ↓, Sousa V. ↑,
61', Pacheco F. ↓, Doukoure H. ↑,
61', Soares P. ↓, Pedro P. ↑,
70', Podstawski T. ↓, Couto J. ↑,
70', Gomes V. ↓, Andrezinho ↑,
72', Mauro Ribeiro ↓, Guimaraes B. ↑,
77', 🟨,
84', Talles Wander 🟨,
86', Duarte D. ↓, Martins D. ↑,
90+2', Rocha T. 🟥,
90+3', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+3', 🟥,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Sanjoanense has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Marco's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sanjoanense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sanjoanense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.26	Fafe - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Sanjoanense - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- AD Marco 09
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.26	Marco 09 - São João de Ver	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Marco 09 - Paredes	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
29.11.25	Marco 09 - Sanjoanense	2:1
16.08.25	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	0:0

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