Match Info

Primera Division - Clausura - Round 21

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Piedades (Santa Ana)

Referee: Vindas R. (Cos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Costa-rica	FUTV
North-central-america	Centro America TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santa Ana		Alajuelense

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.75	1.29
	7.25	4.2	1.35
	6.8	4.3	1.43	Watch
	7.67	4.5	1.42
	7.43	4.3	1.43	Watch
	6	3.9	1.5
	7.41	4.4	1.39	Watch
	6.8	4.3	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.23 ↑ (5.66)	4.33 ↑ (3.85)	1.41 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Ana
12.8%

Draw
21.4%

Alajuelense
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.4%

24.1%

59.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

23.6%

60.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Ana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Alajuelense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alajuelense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Ana than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Santa Ana - Alajuelense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Santa Ana will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Alajuelense will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Ana (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Alajuelense (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Ana (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alajuelense (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pemberton P. (C) 2. Lopez L. 25. Dawson R. 55. Morera Alvarado G. M. 15. Chevez A. 21. Juarez F. 44. Bonilla J. 19. Castro G. 39. Villalobos M. 17. Camareno J. 33. Casado E.	23. Ortega Olivera W. J. (G) 2. Martinez C. 13. Gamboa A. 25. van der Putten S. 16. Oviedo B. 14. Bran Flores A. J. 5. Borges C. (C) 10. Suarez A. 97. Anderson Canhoto 11. Campos D. 33. Lucumi J.
Substitutes
5. Fallas L. 6. Madrigal J. 50. Masis D. 95. Nixon Guylherme 28. Ortiz K. 35. Rojas D. (G) 14. Russell M.	8. Angulo L. 17. Chacon D. 1. Mora B. (G) 28. Navarro J. 34. Perez C. 26. Pinar F. 19. Toril A.
Coaches
Salomon C.	Ramirez O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Dawson R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Bonilla J. ↓, Russell M. ↑,
60', Campos D. ↓, Perez C. ↑,
66', Suarez A. ↓, Navarro J. ↑,
66', Anderson Canhoto ↓, Toril A. ↑,
73', Morera Alvarado G. M. ↓, Nixon Guylherme ↑,
76', Lucumi J. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
76', Martinez C. ↓, Pinar F. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Camareno J. ⚽,
82', Borges C. 🟥,
83', Nixon Guylherme 🟨,
84', Casado E. ↓, Masis D. ↑,
84', Juarez F. ↓, Fallas L. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Toril A. (Pen),
90+2', Gamboa A. 🟨,
90+2', Dawson R. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Santa Ana is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alajuelense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alajuelense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alajuelense is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Santa Ana won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 1.3:3).

Including home match between the teams, Santa Ana won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Alajuelense - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 59.57%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Santa Ana
Costa Rican Primera Division
25.04.25	Santa Ana - Santos de Guápiles	3:3 ✺
20.04.25	Herediano - Santa Ana	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Santa Ana - Municipal Liberia	1:4 ✺
12.04.25	Deportivo Saprissa - Santa Ana	3:0 ✺
05.04.25	Santa Ana - Guanacasteca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLLT
- LD Alajuelense
Costa Rican Primera Division
27.04.25	Puntarenas FC - Alajuelense	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Alajuelense - Deportivo Saprissa	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Alajuelense - Sporting San José	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Guanacasteca - Alajuelense	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Alajuelense - Santos de Guápiles	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Costa Rican Primera Division
11.01.25	Alajuelense - Santa Ana	6:3
10.11.24	Santa Ana - Alajuelense	0:2
28.07.24	Alajuelense - Santa Ana	1:1

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