Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Santa Clara		Shamrock Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.4	7
	1.5	3.8	6.25
	1.55	3.55	6.9	Watch
	1.54	3.7	6.76
	1.33	4.76	8.19	Watch
	1.6	3.51	7.23
	1.4	4.55	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.33)	3.9 ↓ (4.76)	7.13 ↓ (8.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
62.7%

Draw
24.1%

Shamrock Rovers
13.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

69.4%

19.4%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

18.1%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Clara's form might have worsened.

Shamrock Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shamrock Rovers than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	15%	5%

Santa Clara - Shamrock Rovers Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Santa Clara (2.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Shamrock (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Shamrock (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Shamrock (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santa Clara will win (32 of 40 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.6% – 92.4%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Shamrock (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Batista (C) 23. Lima S. 13. Rocha L. 32. MT 2. Diogo Calila 6. Adriano Firmino 35. Serginho 64. Paulo Victor 70. Vinicius Lopes 17. Costa J. 10. Gabriel Silva	1. McGinty E. (G) 6. Cleary D. 4. Lopes R. (C) 5. Grace L. 21. Grant D. 7. Watts D. 17. Healy M. 15. Nugent D. 2. Honohan J. 20. Gaffney R. 14. Mandroiu D.
Substitutes
50. Afonso J. (G) 11. Brenner 7. Elias Manoel 8. Ferreira P. 3. Matheus Pereira 12. Neneca (G) 16. Pires M. 29. Wendell	22. Barrett C. 10. Burke G. 18. Clarke T. 9. Greene A. 11. Kavanagh S. 3. Matthews A. 8. McEneff A. 88. McGovern J. 31. Noonan M. 16. O'Neill G. 27. O'Sullivan C. 25. Steacy L. (G)
Coaches
Pires L.	Bradley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Vinicius Lopes ⚽, Gabriel Silva (A),
43', 1 - 1, Grant D. ⚽, Watts D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Grant D. 🟨,
62', Diogo Calila ↓, Pires M. ↑,
62', Costa J. ↓, Wendell ↑,
66', Serginho 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Mandroiu D. ⚽, Honohan J. (A),
73', Serginho ↓, Ferreira P. ↑,
73', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
73', Gaffney R. ↓, Burke G. ↑,
73', Mandroiu D. ↓, O'Neill G. ↑,
74', Cleary D. 🟨,
85', Paulo Victor ↓, Matheus Pereira ↑,
86', O'Neill G. 🟨,
89', Watts D. ↓, McEneff A. ↑,
90+4', Nugent D. ↓, Barrett C. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, Santa Clara has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Shamrock is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Santa Clara is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Santa Clara - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Santa Clara - Larne	0:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.08.25	Famalicão - Santa Clara	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Larne - Santa Clara	0:3 ✺
31.07.25	Santa Clara - Varaždin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLWW
- Shamrock Rovers
Irish FAI Cup
17.08.25	Shamrock Rovers - Longford Town	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Shamrock Rovers - Ballkani	4:0 ✺
Irish Premier Division
10.08.25	Galway United - Shamrock Rovers	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Ballkani - Shamrock Rovers	1:0 ✺
Irish Premier Division
03.08.25	Shamrock Rovers - Derry City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWTLW

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