Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 27

Date: 7 April 2023, Friday

Location: Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Santa Clara		Vizela

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.05
	3.6	3.15	2.06
	3.82	3.37	2.13
	3.7	3.1	2.1
	3.78	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.65	3.35	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (2.87)	3.25 ↑ (3.02)	2.09 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Clara
25.7%

Draw
29.1%

Vizela
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

31%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

30.2%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Clara's form might have worsened.

Vizela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vizela's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Clara, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vizela, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	13.6%	86.4%

Santa Clara - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Vizela will win (votes: 19 - 86.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vizela: 72.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

Vizela has the most likely position - 7 (18.44%), project points - 47, currently - 35, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 44, very small importance 9, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Santa Clara has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Vizela is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vizela will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Santa Clara: Domingos T. (Injury) Rocha M. (Injury)

There will not play in Vizela: Alvarado Jr A. (Injury) Kiki (Injury)

There are questionable in Vizela: Wilson Valdez B. R. (Muscle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Vizela to win the game is with odds 2.06.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santa Clara won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Santa Clara won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
01.04.23	Sporting Lisbon - Santa Clara	3:0 ✺
17.03.23	Santa Clara - Rio Ave	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
05.03.23	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
25.02.23	Marítimo - Santa Clara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Vizela
Liga Portugal
01.04.23	Vizela - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
18.03.23	Portimonense - Vizela	0:1 ✺
11.03.23	Vizela - Braga	0:4 ✺
04.03.23	Estoril Praia - Vizela	0:3 ✺
25.02.23	Vizela - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.10.22	Vizela - Santa Clara	0:1
06.03.22	Santa Clara - Vizela	3:1
02.10.21	Vizela - Santa Clara	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
26.02.17	Santa Clara - Vizela	0:0
09.10.16	Vizela - Santa Clara	0:0

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